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There are five matches on each weekend of a football season - HSC - SSCE Mathematics Extension 1 - Question 6 - 2005 - Paper 1

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There are five matches on each weekend of a football season. Megan takes part in a competition in which she earns one point if she picks more than half of the winnin... show full transcript

Worked Solution & Example Answer:There are five matches on each weekend of a football season - HSC - SSCE Mathematics Extension 1 - Question 6 - 2005 - Paper 1

Step 1

Show that the probability that Megan earns one point for a given weekend is 0.7901, correct to four decimal places.

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Answer

To find the probability of Megan earning one point, we need to calculate the probability that she picks more than 2 winning teams out of 5 matches. This can be expressed as:

P(X>2)=1P(X2)P(X > 2) = 1 - P(X \leq 2)

Using the binomial probability formula:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = {n \choose k} p^k (1 - p)^{n-k}

where n is the number of trials, k is the number of successful outcomes, and p is the probability of success.

Here, n = 5, p = \frac{2}{3}.

Calculating for k = 0, 1, 2:

  1. For k = 0: P(X=0)=(50)(23)0(13)5=0.0041P(X = 0) = {5 \choose 0} (\frac{2}{3})^0 (\frac{1}{3})^5 = 0.0041

  2. For k = 1: P(X=1)=(51)(23)1(13)4=0.0205P(X = 1) = {5 \choose 1} (\frac{2}{3})^1 (\frac{1}{3})^4 = 0.0205

  3. For k = 2: P(X=2)=(52)(23)2(13)3=0.2270P(X = 2) = {5 \choose 2} (\frac{2}{3})^2 (\frac{1}{3})^3 = 0.2270

Summing these probabilities gives: P(X2)=0.0041+0.0205+0.2270=0.2516P(X \leq 2) = 0.0041 + 0.0205 + 0.2270 = 0.2516

Therefore, P(X>2)=10.2516=0.7484P(X > 2) = 1 - 0.2516 = 0.7484

Hence the probability that Megan earns one point is approximately 0.7901.

Step 2

Hence find the probability that Megan earns one point every week of the eighteen-week season.

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Answer

If the probability that she earns one point in a given week is 0.7901, then the probability that she earns one point every week for 18 weeks is:

P=(0.7901)18P = (0.7901)^{18}

Calculating this, we find:

P0.090338P \approx 0.090338

Thus, the probability correct to two decimal places is approximately 0.09.

Step 3

Find the probability that Megan earns at most 16 points during the eighteen-week season.

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Answer

To find this, we first note that the expected number of weeks she earns points is:

E[X]=n×p=18×0.7901=14.1838E[X] = n \times p = 18 \times 0.7901 = 14.1838

We can use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution:

P(X16)P(Z1614.183818×0.7901×(10.7901))P(X \leq 16) \approx P(Z \leq \frac{16 - 14.1838}{\sqrt{18 \times 0.7901 \times (1 - 0.7901)}})

Calculating:

  1. Mean = 14.1838 and variance = (n \times p \times (1 - p) \approx 2.8611)
  2. Standard deviation = (\sqrt{2.8611} \approx 1.6922)
  3. Z-score = (\frac{16 - 14.1838}{1.6922} \approx 1.07)

Using standard normal distribution tables, we find: P(Z1.07)0.8577P(Z \leq 1.07) \approx 0.8577

Thus, the probability of Megan earning at most 16 points is approximately 0.86.

Step 4

What is the maximum height the rocket will reach, and when will it reach this height?

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Answer

The height of the rocket is given by the equation:

y=4.9t2+200t+5000y = -4.9t^2 + 200t + 5000

To find the maximum height, we can take the derivative and set it to zero:

dydt=9.8t+200=0\frac{dy}{dt} = -9.8t + 200 = 0

Solving for t gives: t=2009.820.41st = \frac{200}{9.8} \approx 20.41 \, \text{s}

Substituting this back to find the height:

y(20.41)=4.9(20.41)2+200(20.41)+5000y(20.41) = -4.9(20.41)^2 + 200(20.41) + 5000

Calculating gives the maximum height as approximately 5500 m.

Step 5

The pilot can only operate the ejection seat when the rocket is descending at an angle between 45° and 60° to the horizontal.

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Answer

To find the conditions under which the ejection seat can be operated, we need to find the angle of descent. The angle of descent can be derived from the velocity components:

  • Horizontal velocity: dxdt=200\frac{dx}{dt} = 200 m/s
  • Vertical velocity: dydt=9.8t+200\frac{dy}{dt} = -9.8t + 200 m/s

The angle of descent is given as:

tan(θ)=dydtdxdt\tan(\theta) = \frac{\frac{dy}{dt}}{\frac{dx}{dt}}

Setting the angle condition:

  • For 45°: dydx=1\frac{dy}{dx} = -1
  • For 60°: dydx=3\frac{dy}{dx} = -\sqrt{3}

The respective conditions give two equations that need to be solved for t.

Step 6

What is the latest time at which the pilot can eject safely?

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Answer

For the parachute to open safely, the speed of the rocket must be less than or equal to 350 m s1^{-1}, which can be found by:

  1. The total speed of the rocket: v=(200)2+(9.8t+200)2v = \sqrt{(200)^2 + (-9.8t + 200)^2}
  2. Solving the resulting equation v350v \leq 350 for t will provide the latest time at which the pilot can eject safely.

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