Presidential elections and their significance (OCR A-Level Politics): Revision Notes
📚 Revision Notes
21.1.2 The importance of incumbency on a president seeking a second term.
Incumbency in US Presidential Elections
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Incumbency refers to the situation in which the current holder of the presidential office seeks re-election. The incumbent president often has significant advantages in the election, but there are also notable disadvantages that can come with the position.
Advantages of Incumbency
Name Recognition and Media Exposure
- Name Recognition: The incumbent is already a well-known figure, which provides a significant advantage. Voters are familiar with the president's policies and leadership style. For instance, Joe Biden capitalised on his recognition, especially due to his association with major policy initiatives like the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This familiarity helps in connecting with undecided voters.
- Media Exposure: Incumbent presidents regularly appear in the news and other media, both in their official capacity and as candidates. This constant presence keeps them in the public eye.
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- Example: George W. Bush benefited from media exposure post-9/11, using the narrative of national security and leadership in crisis to bolster his re-election campaign.
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- Example: In the 2012 election, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast just before the election, and President Obama's response was widely covered, portraying him as a capable leader in times of crisis. In contrast, George W. Bush's slow response to Hurricane Katrina damaged his public image.
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- Current Example: Biden's campaign has emphasised the success of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act to maintain positive media coverage.
Fundraising Ability and Campaign Machine
- Financial Advantage: The prestige of the presidency and established connections to wealthy donors and Political Action Committees (PACs) give incumbents a significant fundraising edge.
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- Example: In 2012, Obama raised over $700 million, enabling a far-reaching and effective campaign.
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- Current Example: Biden's fiery State of the Union address in 2023 led to an increase in individual donations to his campaign.
- Established Networks: Incumbents have an established network of political allies, grassroots supporters, and a proven track record of winning an election.
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- Example: Obama's re-election campaign in 2012 was bolstered by a well-coordinated network that mobilised volunteers for door-to-door canvassing and phone banking, significantly boosting voter turnout.
Track Record and Use of Office
- Showcasing Achievements: Incumbents can highlight their concrete achievements and policy successes as evidence of effective leadership.
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- Example: Obama's 2012 campaign emphasised the passage of the ACA, recovery from the Great Recession, and the killing of Osama bin Laden.
- Targeted Policies: Incumbents can use their office to implement targeted policies or symbolic gestures to gain popularity.
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- Example: Obama's initiatives on student loan reform, healthcare accessibility, and immigration reform resonated with key demographics like young voters, Hispanic communities, and LGBTQ+ rights advocates.
Disadvantages of Incumbency
Scrutiny of the President's Record
- Increased Scrutiny: Incumbents face intense scrutiny from opponents, the media, and the public, especially regarding their failures.
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- Example: George H.W. Bush faced criticism for breaking his "no new taxes" pledge, which led to a loss of trust among voters.
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- Example: Trump was heavily criticised for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was seen as inadequate and reactive rather than proactive.
Voters' Desire for Change
- Desire for Change: Voters may develop a sense of policy fatigue or disillusionment with the status quo, leading them to desire change.
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- Example: Jimmy Carter faced a public desire for change due to economic struggles and the Iran hostage crisis, which overshadowed his efforts and contributed to his defeat.
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- Example: Trump became a focal point for dissatisfaction due to his handling of contemporary issues like the pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement.
Less Momentum
- Challenges in Generating Excitement: Incumbents may struggle to generate the same level of excitement and engagement as their challengers.
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- Example: Biden's 2020 victory was largely due to his ability to turn out his base and emphasise the importance of unseating Trump, rather than generating enthusiasm for his policies.
Political Context
- Impact of Domestic and Foreign Policy: Incumbents are judged on how well they have handled domestic and international issues.
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- Example: Trump's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement damaged his popularity, as he was perceived as indifferent to significant issues affecting the nation.
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- Example: George H.W. Bush's failure to address economic issues adequately led to his loss, encapsulated by the phrase "It's the economy, stupid" during Bill Clinton's campaign.
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- Positive Example: George W. Bush's leadership post-9/11 and the initiation of the war on terror strengthened his re-election campaign.
- Policy Fulfillment: The extent to which an incumbent fulfils their campaign promises also plays a critical role in re-election.
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- Example: Obama's successful passage of the ACA ("Obamacare") was a significant factor in his re-election.