Global oil prices fell from a 2008 peak of $147 a barrel to $27 in 2016 - Edexcel - A-Level Economics A - Question 8 - 2017 - Paper 2
Question 8
Global oil prices fell from a 2008 peak of $147 a barrel to $27 in 2016.
Evaluate the likely macroeconomic consequences of a significant fall in global oil prices.
Worked Solution & Example Answer:Global oil prices fell from a 2008 peak of $147 a barrel to $27 in 2016 - Edexcel - A-Level Economics A - Question 8 - 2017 - Paper 2
Step 1
An increase in overall economic activity
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A significant fall in oil prices can lead to an increase in real GDP as production costs for businesses decrease. This is particularly evident for firms that heavily depend on oil. For instance, a 10% drop in oil prices might contribute to a growth in GDP of approximately 0.1 to 0.5 percentage points.
Step 2
Beneficial effects for consumers
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With lower oil prices, consumers experience reduced transportation and heating costs, which may lead to an increase in disposable income. This can subsequently enhance consumer spending and boost overall demand within the economy.
Step 3
Impact on oil-producing countries
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Oil-exporting nations may face significant economic challenges as falling prices lead to diminished revenues, impacting employment and tax revenues. Countries like Russia and Venezuela may experience heightened economic instability as a result, which can ripple through global markets.
Step 4
Inflationary pressures
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On a positive note, lower oil prices can alleviate inflationary pressures, making goods and services cheaper for consumers. This may enable central banks to maintain or lower interest rates, stimulating further economic growth.
Step 5
Consideration of externalities
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There are externalities to consider; regions reliant on oil production might face increased unemployment and associated social problems. Industries may innovate to reduce dependence on oil, potentially leading to advancements in alternative energy sources.
Step 6
Conclusion on macroeconomic consequences
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In summary, while a significant fall in oil prices tends to have generally positive implications for consumers and overall economic activity, it can also pose severe risks to oil-dependent regions. The ultimate effects will depend on the adaptability of economies and the duration of such price changes.