4.1.2 Factors Explaining Election Outcomes: Policies, Campaigns, and Political Context

Factors Explaining the Outcomes of Elections

Manifestos

Definition and Importance

Reasons for Manifestos

• Representation: To communicate the party's vision and priorities to voters, ensuring transparency and accountability.
• Mobilization: To energize and motivate the party base and attract undecided voters by addressing their concerns and aspirations.
• Differentiation: To distinguish the party from its competitors, highlighting unique policies and approaches.
• Mandate: Establishes a mandate for the government. This is because the policies the party has presented have been supported by the people, which led to them becoming government.

Impact on Election Outcomes

• Voter Alignment: Clear and appealing policies can align voter preferences with the party's vision, leading to increased support.
• Policy Debates: Well-defined manifestos set the stage for public debates, helping voters make informed choices.
• Trust and Credibility: Consistent and feasible policies enhance a party's credibility, building trust among the electorate.

Recent Example

Party leaders:

• The image of a party leader can greatly influence voting behaviour
• Eg Tony Blair in 1997 began with an extremely positive image and won the GE in 1997, 2001 and 2005
• In 2007, Blair was replaced with Gordon Brown who did not have the best image, which led to a Labour defeat in 2010
• Qualities a party leader should possess are: compassion, decisiveness, pragmatic, leadership, commitment, good communication skills
• Nicola Sturgeon was the SNP leader and did not have a good image
• However, the SNP regained some seats they lost in 2017 which shows that a party and their policies are more influential than a party leader

Tactical Voting:

Definition and Importance:

• This is important as it prevents people from really having their say and prevents an inaccurate image of peoples political ideology and what they want to see from the government.

Examples:

Techniques Used in Election Campaigns

Traditional Campaign Techniques

• Canvassing: Door-to-door interactions to engage directly with voters, providing personalized appeals.
• Rallies and Public Meetings: Large gatherings to demonstrate support and generate enthusiasm.
• Print Media: Use of newspapers, posters, and flyers to disseminate information and rally support.

Modern Campaign Techniques

• Digital Campaigning: Utilization of social media platforms (e.g., Twitter, Facebook) to reach a wider audience, particularly younger voters.
• Data Analytics: Leveraging big data to target specific voter demographics with tailored messages.
• Television and Radio Ads: Broadcast advertisements to convey key messages and counter opponents' narratives.

Impact on Election Outcomes

• Voter Engagement: Effective use of digital and traditional techniques can significantly increase voter turnout and engagement.
• Message Control: Digital platforms allow for rapid response to political developments, maintaining narrative control.
• Resource Allocation: Data-driven campaigns enable more efficient allocation of resources to critical areas.

Recent Example

The Wider Political Context of Elections

• Economic Conditions: Economic stability or crisis can influence voter behavior significantly. Voters often support parties perceived to be better economic managers.
• Incumbency Advantage: Incumbent parties or candidates often have greater visibility and established support networks.
• Political Scandals: Corruption or misconduct can sway public opinion against a party or candidate.
• Geopolitical Events: International crises or conflicts can shift voter focus towards foreign policy and national security.

Impact on Election Outcomes

• Economic Performance: Positive economic indicators generally favor the incumbent, while economic downturns can lead to a desire for change.
• Scandals and Misconduct: These can erode public trust and shift support towards opposition parties.
• External Threats: National security concerns can rally voters around strong leadership, benefiting parties perceived as capable in this area.

Evaluate the view that the campaigns of political parties are more important in determining the result of a general election than the competence of government

Sides of the argument:

Conclusion

Understanding the outcomes of elections involves examining a multifaceted array of factors, including the role of party policies and manifestos, the techniques employed in campaigns, and the broader political context. By analyzing these elements, students can gain deeper insights into the dynamics of electoral politics and the reasons behind the success or failure of political parties in elections.