Emerging powers vary in their influence on people and the physical environment

Emerging Superpowers → Nations w/ significant influence that is growing

2019 - 46% of GDP globally = USA & EU, 16.2% = China & next largest = Japan (6%)

↳ Likely to change:

1. EU & Japan = ageing populations ∴ demographic won't grow so economy will grow at slower rate
2. USA not as impacted by demographic, but economic & population growth not likely to be as rapid
3. China's population = ageing. But, manufacturing based economy - huge potential as it shifts to growth based on services & consumerism (also true for Brazil, which, like China, has a growing middle class)
4. Other demographically large countries will get much bigger & potentially much richer (India, Indonesia) Future Superpowers Likely to Emerge from BRICS and G20 (possibly MINT)

↳ G20 countries collectively account for 90% of world GDP, 80% of world trade & approx 65% of pop

↳ Economic influence: Economic growth has powered the world economy

↳ Political influence: Influential through economic importance - can join world decision making organisations

↳ Environmental influence: Climate change = global issue & emerging countries have a crucial role to play in tackling it

Emerging Power Strengths & Weaknesses

• Countries w/ large population & economy likely candidates for future superpowers Weaknesses of EU

• 27 nations rarely agree ∴ many decisions are compromises

• Economy weak since global financial crisis

• Ageing populations

• BREXIT weakens the economic power & distracts the EU from core economic & social purposes

Theories of Power

Modernisation Theory - W. W. Rostow

• AKA 'Take-off model' - Based on historical development of USA and UK

• Suggests that economic development of pre-industrial societies will be slow certain pre-conditions are met (5 stages): Modern infrastructure, education, banking and effective government

  

• Saw capitalism as the answer to poverty - emphasis on cultural and institutional transformations if developing nations were to modernise

  • Belief: Developing countries needed to be integrated into the world market & establish free trade if they were to grow economically
  • Argues a relationship between developed and developing countries is one of dependency - periphery (satellite) countries provide a range of services for core (metropolitan) countries. Such as:
  • Cheap commodities (oil, coffee)
  • Labour in form of migration (causing brain drain)
  • Markets for manufactured goods & locations for investment (mines, HEP dams)
  • ∴ preventing developing countries from making economic progress

• Good at explaining why some countries manage to become wealthy

• (-) Only describes the process of economic change & growth (assumes it to be the same always). Does not help to understand why some countries gain the political & cultural power needed to be a superpower

Dependency Theory - A.G Frank

Dependency → Progress of a developing country is influenced by economic, cultural & political forces that are controlled by developed countries

• Neo-colonial mechanisms and a net transfer of wealth from developing to developed world are responsible
  • Theory is relevant to the superpower status because…
  • Superpowers that control developing countries gain economic wealth & power by exploitation
  • ∴ superpowers actively contribute to the underdevelopment of these countries ∴ emerging countries ↓

Dependency Theory - A.G Frank

• (-) However, arguably some NICs have developed, Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore etc → The dependency theory is very static - doesn't explain why some developing countries have grown rapidly while others have not Frank's research led him to believe that development was not possible while developing countries locked in the dependency relationship

World Systems Theory - Immanuel Wallerstein

• Sees the world as a global system of core (USA), semi-periphery and periphery nations
• The semi-periphery countries are the emerging economies, some of which are economic superpowers
• Flexible: Acknowledging some countries may change group over time
  • Countries develop during cycles of stagnation
  • In the World systems theory model:
  • Core countries use semi-periphery locations as areas to manufacture goods or locations for services
  • Core countries get large returns on foreign investment they make in semi-periphery nations
  • Periphery regions provide raw materials to supply manufacturing in semi-periphery regions and consumption in core regions

World Systems Theory - Immanuel Wallerstein

• (-) really an analysis of the world patterns of power and wealth rather than a detailed explanation of them None of the theories are especially good at identifying why some countries, but not others become superpowers