Incumbency refers to the status of a candidate who currently holds the office they are seeking to be re-elected to. In the context of U.S. presidential elections, the incumbent is the sitting president who is running for another term. Historically, incumbents have a significant advantage in elections, as demonstrated by the fact that in the past 12 presidential elections, only four incumbents have lost, with Donald Trump being the most recent example in 2020.

• Example: Joe Biden's widespread recognition was bolstered by his association with major policy initiatives such as the Affordable Care Act (ACA). His established presence in national politics helped him connect with undecided voters who were already familiar with his leadership style.

• Example: George W. Bush's leadership during and after the 9/11 attacks, including his initiation of the War on Terror, kept him prominently featured in the media, helping him to craft a narrative of strong national security leadership.

• Example: In 2012, just before the election, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast. Barack Obama's response, including public speeches and visits to affected areas, allowed him to demonstrate his competence and compassion, reinforcing his image as a capable president.

• Example: In 2012, Barack Obama raised over $700 million, allowing him to run an extensive and far-reaching campaign. Joe Biden's fiery 2023 State of the Union address also resulted in an uptick in individual donations, showcasing the financial power incumbents can wield.

• Example: Obama's effective campaign machinery in 2012 was critical in mobilizing volunteers for door-to-door canvassing and phone banking, significantly boosting voter turnout.

• Example: Obama's 2012 re-election campaign highlighted his administration's achievements, including the passage of the ACA, recovery from the Great Recession, and the killing of Osama bin Laden.

• Example: Obama addressed issues important to young voters, such as student loan reform and healthcare accessibility, and championed immigration reform, which appealed to Hispanic and immigrant communities, alongside his support for LGBTQ rights.

• Example: George H.W. Bush faced significant criticism for breaking his "no new taxes" pledge, which led to a loss of trust among voters and contributed to his defeat in the 1992 election.

• Example: Jimmy Carter faced a strong desire for change during the 1980 election, as public sentiment grew weary of economic struggles and the Iran hostage crisis, despite his efforts to resolve these issues.

• Example: Donald Trump was heavily criticized for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which many voters viewed as inadequate. Despite various factors contributing to the crisis, Trump became the focal point of blame, damaging his re-election prospects.

• Example: Joe Biden's 2020 campaign faced the challenge of motivating voters to turn out in large numbers, which was essential for defeating Trump. Biden's success hinged on convincing his base that unseating Trump was critically important.

• Example: Trump's political and economic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his response to the Black Lives Matter movement were seen as detrimental, leading to a decline in his popularity.

• Example: George H.W. Bush's loss in the 1992 election is often attributed to the economic downturn and the perception that he was out of touch with the economic struggles of ordinary Americans, despite his success in foreign policy, such as the Gulf War.

• Example: Barack Obama successfully passed the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare") during his first term, a significant achievement that helped secure his re-election in 2012.

• Example: Ronald Reagan doubled his popular vote margin between his first and second elections. Franklin D. Roosevelt improved his margin by 80%, and Bill Clinton by 50%.

Incumbency provides significant advantages in U.S. presidential elections, including name recognition, media exposure, fundraising capabilities, and the ability to showcase a track record of achievements. However, incumbents also face challenges such as intense scrutiny, voter fatigue, and the potential for being blamed for ongoing issues. The balance between these factors often determines the success or failure of an incumbent's re-election campaign.