• Opinion Polls: Surveys conducted to gauge public opinion on various political issues, candidate popularity, and voter intentions.
• Impact: Influence voter perceptions, campaign strategies, and media coverage.

National election polling in the UK began with the 1945 general election. Generally, opinion polls have been accurate, especially in predicting the outcomes of the 1997, 2001, and 2005 elections. Nevertheless, there have been notable exceptions, such as the 1992 election, where Labour was forecasted to win by 1.3%, but the Conservatives won by 7.6%. Similarly, in the 2015 election, a predicted tie ended with the Conservatives winning by 6%.

• The 2015 general election was a major failure for the polling industry. Polls leading up to the election predicted a hung parliament and political turmoil. The British Polling Council launched an inquiry, suggesting that pollsters weren't reaching the right demographic, their methods were outdated, and that some Conservative voters were unwilling to disclose their true voting intentions.
• 2017 General Election: Opinion polls initially predicted a large Conservative majority. As the campaign progressed, polls showed a narrowing gap, leading to increased scrutiny of Conservative policies and strategies.
• 2019 General Election: Polls consistently showed a Conservative lead, influencing media coverage and voter perceptions, contributing to the eventual Conservative victory.

Polls in the 2024 General Election The opinion polls for the 2024 UK General Election indicated a significant lead for the Labour Party over the Conservative Party, with some surveys showing a gap of over 20 percentage points. This consistent advantage was reflected in the final election results, where Labour, led by Keir Starmer, achieved a landslide victory. The Conservative Party, under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, suffered a historic defeat, losing 251 seats, which marked their worst performance ever and ended their 14-year tenure as the primary governing party.

Leading up to the election, various polling organizations, including YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and others, conducted continuous surveys to gauge public voting intentions. These polls were essential in forecasting the election's outcome, although, as with previous elections, the results were not always perfectly accurate due to complexities in voter behaviour and polling methodologies.

• Media Bias: The perceived or real partiality of media outlets towards certain political parties or candidates.

"It's The Sun Wot Won It"

• This famous headline from The Sun newspaper after the 1992 General Election claimed that their support for the Conservative Party contributed to their unexpected victory. Context:

• Leading up to the 1992 election, opinion polls suggested a Labour victory.

• The Sun, a popular tabloid with a large readership, supported the Conservatives and ran negative stories about Labour leader Neil Kinnock.

• After the Conservative victory, the paper declared its influence on the result, highlighting the potential power of media endorsement in swaying voter opinion.

The Media's Contribution to Tony Blair's Success

1. Media Endorsement and Support:

• One of the key factors in Tony Blair's success, especially during the 1997 General Election, was his ability to secure media support, particularly from traditionally conservative outlets like The Sun. Prior to the election, Blair met with Rupert Murdoch, owner of The Sun and other major newspapers. This meeting resulted in The Sun switching its support from the Conservatives to Labour, which was significant given the paper's large readership and historical influence on public opinion. This support was symbolically highlighted by The Sun's previous claim of having "won it" for the Conservatives in 1992. 2. Effective Media Management:

• Blair and his team, notably Alastair Campbell, his press secretary, implemented a sophisticated media management strategy. They focused on setting the news agenda, promoting stories favourable to New Labour, and ensuring that the media coverage presented Blair and his policies in a positive light. This strategy included keeping spokespeople "on message" and providing pre-packaged stories to journalists to maintain a consistent narrative.

• The strategy was essential in navigating the 24-hour news cycle and the proliferation of media outlets, including rolling news channels and internet platforms. This approach helped create a professional and cohesive image of Blair and New Labour, contrasting sharply with the Conservative Party, which was portrayed as divided and out of touch. 3. Spin Doctors and Control of the Narrative:

• Blair's government utilized "spin doctors" like Campbell to meticulously control the narrative. This included managing public relations through focus groups and polls to align Labour's messaging with the concerns of the public. This practice was initially praised for its professionalism, but later criticized as journalists began to push back against the perceived over-management and manipulation of news. 4. Shift in Media Landscape:

• By 1997, television had become the primary source of political news for many voters, reducing the influence of newspapers to some extent. Despite this, Blair's efforts to secure newspaper endorsements were seen as crucial in reaching undecided voters and solidifying Labour's lead. The biggest increase in Labour support came from Sun readers, indicating that the endorsement had a tangible impact on voter behaviour. 5. Strategic Messaging and Public Perception:

• Blair's strategic messaging emphasized "New Labour" as a modern, reformed party distinct from the old Labour image. The media played a critical role in conveying this new identity to the electorate. The use of focus groups and carefully crafted media messages ensured that Labour was seen as responsive to public concerns and capable of providing stable leadership.

"Labour Isn't Working" Slogan and Campaign

1. Background and Context:

• The "Labour Isn't Working" slogan was part of a highly effective Conservative Party advertising campaign during the 1979 General Election in the United Kingdom.

• The campaign was developed by advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi, commissioned by the Conservative Party under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher.

• It targeted the economic mismanagement and high unemployment rates under the Labour government, led by Prime Minister James Callaghan. 2. The Slogan and Visual Impact:

• The slogan "Labour Isn't Working" was paired with a powerful visual: a long queue of people stretching towards the horizon, symbolizing the unemployment crisis.

• The poster depicted a seemingly endless line of job seekers, underlining the message that the Labour Party's policies had failed to address the economic issues of the time.

• The stark imagery and clear, concise message were designed to resonate with voters who were disillusioned with Labour's handling of the economy. 3. Key Themes and Messaging:

• The campaign focused on high unemployment, which had reached over 1 million people, and economic stagnation during Labour's tenure.

• It played on public fear and frustration regarding job security and the future of the economy, emphasizing that a change in leadership was necessary to restore prosperity.

• The slogan was a clever wordplay, suggesting not only that the Labour Party was ineffective but also linking the idea of "work" directly to the party's name. 4. Impact on the 1979 General Election:

• The campaign is credited with significantly boosting the Conservative Party's image as being more competent in handling economic issues.

• It helped shift public perception against Labour, portraying them as out of touch and ineffective.

• The Conservatives won the 1979 General Election with a decisive majority, and Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister, marking the beginning of 18 years of Conservative governance. 6. Criticisms and Controversies:

• Critics argued that the campaign was misleading, as the unemployment figures were exaggerated for dramatic effect.

• The poster featured actors rather than actual unemployed people, which some viewed as manipulative and disingenuous.

• Despite these criticisms, the campaign's effectiveness in shaping public opinion and influencing the election outcome is widely acknowledged.

• 1992 General Election: The Sun's headline "If Kinnock wins today, will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights" is cited as an example of media bias against Labour.
• 2019 General Election: The Daily Telegraph and The Sun supported the Conservative Party, while The Guardian and The Mirror were biased towards Labour.

• Agenda Setting: The media's ability to highlight certain issues, influencing what the public perceives as important.
• Framing: How the media presents and structures news stories, affecting public perception and interpretation.

• Brexit Coverage: Media outlets like The Daily Mail and The Sun were pro-Brexit, while The Guardian and The Independent were anti-Brexit.
• Immigration Debate: Media coverage has significantly influenced public opinion and political discourse, with varying frames across different outlets.

• Watchdog: The media's role in monitoring government actions, exposing corruption, and holding politicians accountable.

• MPs' Expenses Scandal (2009): The Daily Telegraph's investigation led to public outrage and significant political reforms.
• Windrush Scandal (2018): Media coverage led to government apologies and policy changes related to the wrongful deportation of the Windrush generation.

• Social Media: Platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram where political content is shared and discussed.
• Impact: Allows for rapid dissemination of information, direct communication between politicians and the public, and mobilization of supporters.

• 2017 General Election: Labour's use of social media effectively mobilized young voters. Jeremy Corbyn's campaign engaged with this demographic through platforms like Twitter and Facebook.
• 2019 General Election: Both major parties used social media extensively, with the Conservative Party's digital advertising noted for its targeted ads and data analytics.

• Fake News: False or misleading information presented as news.
• Impact: Can distort public perception, spread quickly on social media, and influence voter behaviour.

• 2016 EU Referendum: Both Leave and Remain campaigns were criticized for spreading misinformation. The Leave campaign's claim about £350 million per week for the NHS was widely debated.
• 2019 General Election: Instances of fake news and misleading information circulated online, prompting discussions about the role of social media companies in regulating content.

Agree:

• Social media is widely used
• Newspapers have gone to social media
• Lots of politicians are now on social media eg on Twitter/X
• Over 70% of 18-24 rely exclusively on social media for news
• Circulation has declined by at least 50% since 1997 but social media has risen
• Newspapers tend to reflect views not influencing the votes

Disagree:

• Newspapers have huge online reach-Guardian 125 million online visits Dec 2021
• Eg. 2019 General Election 73% of Guardian Readers voted for Labour and 79% of Telegraph readers voted Conservative
• People aged 65+ typically read newspapers and had the highest turnout in 2019 approximately 70% which suggests that newspapers influence high turnout and impact elections. Aged 65+ typically vote Tory.
• Newspapers are still significant in forming a leader's image eg 'Red Ed' in 2015
• Newspapers are mainly pro-Conservative which has helped 2010-2019 elections