19.4.1 Changing nature of power over their term in office.

Changing Nature of Power Over a President's Term in Office

The power of a U.S. President is not static; it shifts significantly over the course of their term due to a variety of factors. These factors include constitutional constraints, political dynamics, public support, and individual presidential skills. Here's a detailed analysis of how these elements influence presidential power:

---

1. Constant Limitations

Constitution and the Supreme Court

The President's power is inherently limited by the Constitution and the judiciary, which can block actions that violate established laws. This ensures that the President cannot act unilaterally in a way that contravenes the legal framework.

• Examples:

• Obama faced restrictions on closing Guantanamo Bay due to Congressional limitations on transferring detainees. Separation of Powers

The Constitution establishes a system of checks and balances to prevent any one branch of government from accumulating too much power. This system often forces Presidents to negotiate and compromise with Congress, even when their party controls it.

• Examples:

---

2. Numbers and Partisanship

Unified vs. Divided Government

The composition of Congress—whether it is unified (controlled by the President's party) or divided—affects the President's ability to pass legislation. A unified government facilitates smoother legislative progress, while a divided government often leads to gridlock.

• Examples:

• Biden achieved significant legislation like the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act with a narrow Democratic majority. However, the failure of the Build Back Better Act and the Republican control of the House after the 2022 midterms hindered further progress. Supreme Court Appointments

The ability to appoint Supreme Court justices is a crucial aspect of a President's power, but it is dependent on the Senate's composition and the timing of vacancies. These appointments can shape the judicial landscape for decades.

• Examples:

• Trump shifted the Court's ideological balance with his appointments of Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett, which resulted in significant rulings like the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
• Biden appointed Ketanji Brown Jackson, maintaining the Court's balance, but not shifting the overall ideological stance.

---

3. Popularity and Public Support

Presidential Approval Ratings

High approval ratings increase a President's ability to influence Congress and public opinion, aiding in the passage of their agenda. Low approval ratings, however, can undermine a President's influence and lead to electoral setbacks.

• Examples:

• Trump's approval ratings declined due to perceived mishandling of Hurricane Maria and the COVID-19 pandemic, which played a role in his 2020 election loss.
• Biden started with high approval ratings that helped pass the American Rescue Plan but faced fluctuating support due to issues like inflation and the handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

---

4. Individual Skills of the President

Persuasion and Negotiation

A President's ability to persuade Congress, manage relationships, and effectively communicate with the public is crucial for success. Presidents with strong negotiation skills and coalition-building abilities are generally more successful.

• Examples:

• Trump struggled with intra-party relations, which hindered efforts like the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

---

5. Relationship Between the President and Their Party

Support from Party Leaders

Strong backing from party leaders can significantly enhance a President's power, especially in passing critical legislation. Poor relationships can lead to significant challenges and legislative failures.

• Examples:

• Trump faced difficulties with congressional leaders during attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, showing the impact of party cohesion on legislative success.

---

6. Importance of Timing

First 100 Days

The initial phase of a President's term, or the "honeymoon period", is crucial for pushing through their agenda. This period provides momentum from electoral victory and heightened public and Congressional support.

• Examples:

• Trump quickly appointed Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court during his early months in office, capitalizing on the vacancy left by Justice Scalia. Midterm Elections

Midterm elections can significantly affect a President's ability to govern. A successful midterm can bolster a President's legislative agenda, while losses can lead to gridlock and increased reliance on executive actions.

• Examples:

• Biden's legislative efforts were impeded by losing the House in the 2022 midterms, illustrating the impact of midterm results on presidential power. Lame Duck Period

In the final years of a President's term, particularly if re-election is not an option, their influence can wane. However, this period can also see bold actions, especially in foreign policy.

• Examples:

• Trump issued numerous executive orders and pardons in his final weeks, despite diminishing political influence.