3.2.1 Use and Impact of UK Referendums Since 1997

Referendums: A Form of Direct Democracy

• Recent Major Referendums:

• 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum

• 2016 EU Referendum (Brexit)

  

• Democratic Sovereignty: Referendums embody democratic and popular sovereignty, making it highly unlikely for Parliament to ignore the results.

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Why Call a Referendum?

• Public Pressure: Governments may call referendums in response to public pressure. For example:
  • 2014: The UK government held a referendum on Scottish independence due to pressure from the SNP.
  • 2016: The EU membership referendum was partly driven by the influence of UKIP.
• Party Strategy: Referendums can help parties avoid internal conflicts by passing contentious issues to the electorate. For instance:
  • 2016 Brexit Referendum: The Conservative Party used the referendum to manage divisions between Eurosceptic and pro-EU factions.
• Legitimacy and Constitutional Change: Referendums confer legitimacy on significant constitutional changes. Examples include:

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Referendums in the UK: Historical Context

• 1975 EEC Referendum: The first nationwide referendum, where 67.2% voted to remain in the European Economic Community (EEC), with a turnout of 63.2%.
• 1997 Devolution Referendums:
  • Scotland: 74.3% supported creating a Scottish Parliament with tax-varying powers.
  • Wales: 50.3% supported creating a Welsh Assembly.
• 1998 Good Friday Agreement: Approved by 71.1% in Northern Ireland, crucial for the peace process.
• 2011 AV Referendum: The proposal to replace First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) with the Alternative Vote (AV) system was rejected by 67.9% of voters.
• 2016 EU Referendum: 51.9% voted to leave the EU, with a 72.2% turnout, leading to significant political and constitutional upheaval.

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Consequences of Referendums

• Political Pressure: Although referendums are advisory, the political pressure to follow the result is immense, as seen with Brexit. While Parliament is sovereign and could, in theory, ignore referendum results, doing so would undermine legitimacy.
• Legitimacy and Accountability: Referendums enhance political legitimacy and accountability but can also create challenges, especially with close or contentious results, such as the 2016 Brexit vote.

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The Role of the Electoral Commission

• Oversight and Regulation: The Electoral Commission oversees referendum campaigns to ensure fair conduct. For example, in the 2016 Brexit referendum, the Leave campaign was fined for overspending and other breaches of electoral law.
• Challenges: Despite regulatory oversight, referendums can be marred by misinformation and financial irregularities, questioning their legitimacy.

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Summary of the 2016 EU Referendum

Introduction:

The 2016 EU Referendum, held on June 23rd, 2016, was a landmark event in British political history, marking a pivotal decision on the United Kingdom's membership in the European Union. It was the result of longstanding political debates about sovereignty, immigration, and economic policy within the context of the EU.

Background

Minister David Cameron pledged to hold a referendum on EU membership as part of the Conservative Party's manifesto for the 2015 General Election. This promise was made in response to growing euroscepticism within his party and the rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), which pressured for a public vote on the issue.

Campaigns:

• Leave Campaign: Led by prominent Conservative politicians such as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, and UKIP leader Nigel Farage. Key arguments included:
  • Reclaiming sovereignty
  • Reducing immigration
  • Gaining control over British laws and borders
  • Slogan: "Take Back Control"
• Remain Campaign: Led by David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, and senior figures from the Conservative Party, Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party (SNP). Focused on:
  • Economic benefits of EU membership
  • Security cooperation and global influence
  • Slogan: "Stronger In"

Key Issues:

• Sovereignty: Leave campaigners argued that EU membership undermined British sovereignty by subjecting the UK to EU laws and regulations.
• Immigration: The Leave campaign linked EU membership with high levels of immigration, asserting that leaving the EU would allow the UK to control its borders.
• Economy: The Remain campaign highlighted the economic risks of Brexit, including potential job losses, reduced investment, and market instability.
• Regulation and Trade: Debates on the impact of EU regulations and future trade deals. The Leave campaign argued that the UK could negotiate better trade deals independently.

Outcome:

The referendum had a 72.2% turnout, reflecting high public engagement. The result was 51.9% voting to leave the EU and 48.1% voting to remain. Regional variations:

• England and Wales: Predominantly voted to leave.
• Scotland and Northern Ireland: Predominantly voted to remain.

Aftermath:

• Political Impact: The result led to David Cameron's resignation as Prime Minister, with Theresa May succeeding him. It also intensified debates within major political parties, particularly the Conservative Party and Labour Party.
• Brexit Process: The UK government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union in March 2017, starting the formal process of leaving the EU. This initiated complex negotiations over the UK's departure and future relationship with the EU.
• Economic and Social Impact: The referendum result had immediate economic repercussions, including a significant drop in the value of the pound. It also heightened societal divisions and debates over national identity.

Conclusion:

The 2016 EU Referendum was a defining moment in modern British history, influencing the country's political landscape, economic policies, and international relationships. It underscored significant issues regarding sovereignty, immigration, and economic management, while highlighting deep political and regional divides within the UK.

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Summary

• Uses of Referendums: Referendums are used for single-issue decisions, providing a direct form of democracy. They contrast with general elections, which cover a range of policies and are legally binding.
• Electoral System Assessment: Referendums play a significant role in assessing and potentially reforming the UK's electoral systems and constitutional arrangements

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The 2016 EU Referendum

• The 2016 Referendum on Brexit had close results.
• There was a 72.2% turnout, with 51.9% voting to leave and 48.1% voting to remain.
• Referendums are important for securing public consent for major policies.
• If a government supports one side of a referendum, it will be held accountable if it loses, as seen with David Cameron and the 2016 Referendum.