Case Study → Open Conflict - Russia's Western Border

Context	● Russia is widely spoken (sphere of influence) ○ Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova ● Following the 1991 collapse of communism and the independence of former soviet republics, several newly independent countries in the sphere have raised the possibility of joining the EU ● Russia took over Crimea (part of Ukraine) = open conflict
Impacts of Disputes (Ukraine)	● 3.4 million require humanitarian assistance ● Depopulation due to out migration ○ Crops neglected ○ Housing neglected ● Stray bullets ● Landmines

| Implications for
People due to
Increased
Tensions Between
Russia & W.
Europe | ● Consumers have suffered as imports have reduced due to EU and US economic
sanctions
● Open conflict in Crimea, E. Ukraine and Georgia led to the forced displacement of 10s
of 1000s of people, as well as 100s of deaths
● NATO has deployed additional air and ground forces to its E. border in Estonia,
Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria | | Different
Countries in the
Sphere of
Influence | ● In 2008, Russia annexed the Georgian regions of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia after a
short war and, as of 2016 continues to occupy them
● In 2014, seemingly in response to Ukrainian moves to join the EU and/or NATO,
Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea, significantly raising political and
military tensions in Europe
● Although denied by Russia, as of 2016, its troops appear to be supporting separaist
Russian-speaking Ukrainian forces in E Ukraine
● Transnistria is effectively a Russian-occupied part of Moldova, and has been since
1992. Disputed ownership makes Moldovan membership of the EU unlikely
● The extra-territorial Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is Russia's only year-round
ice-free port. Russia has threatened to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad in response to
NATO's eastward expansion since 1991
|

| Implications for
Economy Due to
Increased
Tensions Between
Russia & W.
Europe | ● EU and US economic sanctions following the 2014 Ukraine/Crimea crisis have isolated
Russia economically, but also affected EU exporters who can no longer sell to Russia
| | Political Threat | ● Despite being in the EU, Finland never |

•                                                     Open Conflict Russia's Western Border*