The Future of Energy Resources (AQA A-Level Geography): Revision Notes
The Future of energy resources
Overview of energy futures
Worldwide energy use is expected to continue rising in the coming decades. Predicting these changes is challenging because numerous technological, economic, environmental and political factors will influence both the rate of energy growth and the mix of energy sources used.
International organisations like the World Energy Council (WEC) and the International Energy Authority (IEA) have developed various future scenarios. These models recognise that an energy transition is underway, though the pace of change remains difficult to determine.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding energy futures, several key trends have emerged from international modelling efforts. These predictions help governments and industries plan for the coming decades.
Despite the uncertainty, several key trends appear likely by 2050:
- Non-carbon emitting energy sources will comprise approximately 40 per cent of the global energy mix
- Coal may remain significant if clean carbon technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) are widely adopted
- Oil consumption is expected to decline as its necessity for transport diminishes
- Average energy use per person will decrease in developed countries as individuals adopt more energy-efficient technologies, though this will be offset by rising consumption elsewhere
Emerging energy technologies
The hydrogen economy
Hydrogen represents a potentially transformative energy source. Unlike many renewable options, hydrogen is a high energy-density fuel that could directly replace fossil fuels once the conversion technology becomes widely available.
Hydrogen economy: A system of delivering energy using hydrogen in different forms.
Hydrogen can be used in several ways:
- Energy storage: Surplus energy can be stored in fuel cells through the electrolysis of water, which converts into and whilst releasing energy
- Vehicle fuel: Hydrogen can power vehicles or provide domestic and industrial heating, though safety measures need further development
- Chemical energy: Hydrogen can be used to create hydrocarbons, which then serve as fuel similarly to natural gas
Hydrogen fuel cells could become the ideal alternative to fossil fuels. They generate electricity using only hydrogen and oxygen, producing no pollution. However, several issues currently hinder widespread adoption of this technology.
Advantages of hydrogen as a fuel:
- High energy density provides significant power output
- Readily available through electrolysis of water
- Zero emissions at point of use
- Renewable potential when produced using clean energy
- Versatile applications across transport and heating
Disadvantages of hydrogen as a fuel:
- High development costs for infrastructure
- Complex and expensive storage requirements
- Safety concerns requiring further technological solutions
- Energy-intensive production process
- Environmental benefit negated if fossil fuels power electrolysis
The main challenge with hydrogen is that if fossil fuels are used in the electrolysis process to separate hydrogen from oxygen, the environmental benefit is negated. Using renewable energy for this process would overcome this limitation.
Additionally, hydrogen cannot be compressed easily or safely, requiring large storage tanks.
Hydrogen may provide the solution for both green (renewable) and blue (fossil fuels with CCS) energy transition. This is particularly relevant if renewable energy is used in the electrolysis process.
Example Application: Iceland's Geothermal Hydrogen
Iceland's abundant geothermal energy could power hydrogen production through electrolysis, creating a completely renewable hydrogen economy. The process would:
- Use geothermal power plants to generate electricity
- Apply this electricity to electrolyse water
- Produce pure hydrogen with zero carbon emissions
- Store the hydrogen for use in vehicles and heating
Gasification of coal
This technology involves converting coal into gas below ground in locations where deposits are deep, thin or difficult to extract as solid fuel. Bioenergy gasification can be combined with carbon capture and storage to chemically transform the coal into a synthetic natural gas (SNG).
Coal gasification offers a way to access difficult-to-mine coal deposits whilst reducing surface mining impacts. When combined with CCS technology, it provides a lower-carbon alternative to traditional coal extraction.
Microbial enhanced oil extraction
Secondary and tertiary oil extraction methods already use steam and detergents, but a newer approach employs bacteria to break down heavy oil. This produces lighter, more easily flowing oil, which enables higher extraction rates.
Nuclear power innovations
Following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, the nuclear power industry has been developing safer technological solutions:
Smaller modular reactors: These are more evenly distributed to serve smaller populations, with built-in safety mechanisms that eliminate the possibility of radiation release.
Offshore nuclear reactors: Similar to the floating platforms already used by the oil and gas industry, these are designed to withstand hurricanes. The reactor cores are submerged beneath the platform, ensuring a constant supply of cold seawater for cooling.
Nuclear fusion: This technology aims to replicate the atomic reaction occurring in the Sun in a controlled manner. It promises limitless carbon-free power without producing dangerous nuclear waste, though it remains many years from maturity.
Nuclear fusion differs fundamentally from current fission reactors. Instead of splitting atoms (fission), fusion combines them - the same process that powers the Sun. This produces far more energy with minimal radioactive waste.
Offshore wind
Advances in turbine blade design, drawing from aeronautics technology, promise massive growth in offshore wind energy over the next 25 years. These improvements will maximise the energy captured from wind.
Geothermal energy
Researchers in Iceland have invested several years in drilling straight into volcanoes to access extremely hot water and magma deposits. The aim is to develop these high-temperature resources into geothermal power stations capable of producing significantly more energy than current facilities.
Solar fuels
This emerging technology converts sunlight, water and carbon dioxide into usable chemical energy that can be stored like petrol for extended periods. This addresses one of the key limitations of solar power - the inability to store energy for use when the sun isn't shining.
Solar fuels represent a breakthrough in renewable energy storage. Unlike batteries, which degrade over time, solar fuels can be stored indefinitely and used exactly like conventional fossil fuels, making them compatible with existing infrastructure.
Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)
OTEC aims to generate electricity by exploiting the temperature differences between surface water (heated by the sun) and water in the ocean's chilly depths. Whilst still in development, this technology could provide a consistent renewable energy source.
Economic factors shaping energy futures
Demand patterns
Energy demand will grow only slowly in developed OECD countries but is expected to rise rapidly in emerging economies. This shift reflects the different stages of economic development and industrialisation across the world.
Energy trade flows towards Asian markets will continue to gather momentum. Concerns about natural gas trade could be reduced by the increased availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is easier to transport.
The shift in energy demand reflects a fundamental economic transition. As emerging economies industrialise, their energy needs grow exponentially, whilst developed nations focus on efficiency improvements and conservation.
Oil and gas production trends
The pace of unconventional oil production in non-OPEC countries will begin to lose momentum in the mid to late 2020s. Following this period, the oil economy will once again depend heavily on supplies from Middle East OPEC nations plus Russia.
Natural gas production will increase in every region except Europe. Unconventional gas will account for 60 per cent of production growth, though shale gas outputs are likely to decline by the 2030s.
Regional growth patterns
Despite sub-Saharan Africa's rapidly growing economy, the region will only account for 4 per cent of the growth in global energy demand. This relatively small contribution reflects the region's current low baseline of energy consumption.
Environmental considerations
Carbon capture and sequestration
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS): Technology that enables the scrubbing of carbon from power plants for storage in underground reservoirs.
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is not itself a power generation technology. Instead, it enables the removal of carbon from power plant emissions for storage in underground reservoirs such as exhausted oil and gas deposits. This means that carbon emissions from fossil fuels and biomass can be captured so they can be used with reduced environmental impact.
Targets for carbon emissions are becoming more stringent as global climate change presents increasingly serious problems worldwide. The Paris Climate Agreement has encouraged many governments to commit to drastically reducing emissions.
Example: UK Net Zero Target
The United Kingdom is legally committed to achieving net zero carbon by 2050. This means:
- Balancing any remaining emissions with carbon removal
- Dramatically reducing fossil fuel consumption
- Investing heavily in renewable energy sources
- Implementing CCS technology across major industries
Local energy generation
On a national scale, there is likely to be a shift towards more local energy generation. This will involve a combination of smaller power stations, combined heat and power plants, and heat networks. These developments will deliver energy efficiency gains and environmental benefits.
Local energy generation reduces transmission losses and increases resilience. When communities generate power locally, they avoid the 5-10% energy loss that occurs during long-distance electricity transmission through the national grid.
Political influences on energy futures
Geopolitics will continue to play a crucial role in the energy industry over the next thirty years until 2050. Several key trends are likely to emerge:
The role of transnational corporations
The influence of transnational corporations (TNCs) in resource development will persist. These corporations possess the wealth needed to control future technologies. However, global governance policies will attempt to dictate the pace of change regarding energy transition.
Developing countries will increasingly depend on TNCs to help develop their resources. The corporations will maintain a monopoly on the skills and capital required for effective resource development.
TNCs will continue to dominate resource development because they alone possess the enormous capital investment and technical expertise needed to develop complex energy projects. This creates a power imbalance between developed and developing nations.
OPEC's re-emergence
OPEC may re-emerge as a powerful cartel, influencing the supply and pricing of both oil and gas. This could happen as traditional fossil fuel resources become depleted and remaining reserves become more valuable.
Competition for Arctic resources
As traditional fossil fuel resources become depleted and remaining reserves grow more valuable, there will be intense competition to claim previously protected areas and exploit them. The Arctic is less protected against development than Antarctica, and several territorial claims have already been made by the USA, Russia, Canada and Denmark in the race for fossil fuels in the Arctic Ocean.
Arctic oil and gas reserves are estimated to contain approximately 13% of the world's undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas. As ice sheets melt due to climate change, these resources become more accessible, intensifying competition.
Geopolitical relationships
Geopolitical relationships between countries will be significantly influenced by the pace of energy transition. Three key factors will shape these relationships:
- Energy equity: Ensuring fair access to energy resources
- National energy security: Protecting domestic energy supplies
- Environmental sustainability: Balancing energy needs with environmental protection
The future of water resources
The United Nations predicts that water shortages could affect five billion people by 2050. The future availability of water depends upon effective management of the water resources the world currently has.
This stark prediction highlights that water scarcity will become one of the most pressing global challenges of the mid-21st century, potentially affecting more than half the world's population.
Technology developments for water
Much of the technological development aimed at increasing water supply focuses on the largest source of water available - the oceans - and the application of desalination techniques.
Osmotic distillation and advanced membrane technology may, in the future, require less energy intensity and thus become more sustainable for widespread use.
Osmotic distillation: Advanced membrane technology for desalination that promises improved energy efficiency compared to traditional reverse osmosis methods.
Electrodialysis offers an alternative desalination method currently being considered. This technique works in the opposite way to reverse osmosis, allowing sodium and chlorine ions to pass through a membrane in the presence of an electric field, leaving purified water on the other side.
Electrodialysis: Desalination method allowing sodium and chlorine ions to pass through a membrane in an electric field, leaving purified water behind.
Saltwater greenhouse technology is well suited to arid parts of the world. It produces water for irrigation by harnessing the cooling and humidifying power of water vapour. Seawater is piped into a greenhouse and evaporates over a large honeycomb surface.
Example: Saltwater Greenhouse Technology
In arid coastal regions, saltwater greenhouses work through a multi-step process:
- Seawater enters through pipes and flows over honeycomb evaporators
- Hot, dry air passes through, becoming cool and humid
- This humid air supports crop growth inside the greenhouse
- Air exits through a condenser where fresh water is collected
- The system provides both irrigation water and ideal growing conditions
Smaller-scale appropriate technologies such as plastic solar stills (marketed as 'watercones') are more suitable for distilling salt water in smaller quantities in less developed countries.
Appropriate technologies are designed to be low-cost, low-maintenance, and suitable for local conditions. Watercones, for example, cost just a few dollars and can produce up to 1.5 litres of fresh water per day using only sunlight - ideal for remote communities.
Economic considerations
Many countries possess an abundance of water, and redistribution can occur through various methods, including water shipping, water management and virtual water trade. Trading water on a larger scale will become more common as water grows more valuable than oil in some regions.
Virtual water trade refers to the hidden water used to produce goods. For example, when a water-scarce country imports grain instead of growing it domestically, it effectively imports the thousands of litres of water that would have been needed for irrigation.
Environmental factors
Any action to manage water resources more sustainably must be co-ordinated with efforts to mitigate climate change effects - these cannot be considered separately. In the future, an integrated river basin management approach will be undertaken by planners, scientists and hydrological engineers.
Key environmental considerations include:
- Impacts on water quality and drainage must be carefully assessed when conducting environmental impact assessments
- Future-proofing river basin management strategies to address these challenges
River basin management takes a holistic approach, considering the entire watershed from source to mouth. This ensures that interventions in one area don't create problems downstream, and that all stakeholders' needs are balanced.
In developed countries, the impacts of water-source development are already considered carefully before implementation proceeds. It is anticipated that developing countries will follow this example.
Political aspects
Water presents a likely cause of international conflict in the future. Potential hotspots of conflict will need to be monitored carefully and co-operation encouraged between nations.
Water scarcity already contributes to tensions in regions where rivers cross international borders. As demand increases and climate change affects supply, the potential for water-related conflicts will grow significantly.
The future management of global water resources features prominently in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
- Proposed Goal 6 aims to 'ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all'
- Sustainability of water resources is also relevant to:
- Goal 3.3 relating to diseases and epidemics (including water-borne diseases) and Goal 3.9, which relates to reducing death from water contamination
- Goal 12, which addresses the safe management of chemicals and wastes, and reduction of their release into water
- Goal 15, which includes targets focusing on the role of water in wildlife conservation
The interconnection of water with multiple SDGs demonstrates its fundamental importance. Water security affects health, industry, agriculture, ecosystems, and peace - making it central to sustainable development.
Key Points to Remember:
- By 2050, approximately 40% of the global energy mix will come from non-carbon emitting sources, marking a significant shift towards cleaner energy
- Hydrogen represents a potentially transformative fuel with zero emissions, but faces challenges including high development costs, difficult storage, and the need for renewable energy in its production process
- Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology will enable continued use of fossil fuels whilst significantly reducing their environmental impact
- The UN predicts that water shortages could affect five billion people by 2050, making water management and new technologies like desalination increasingly critical
- Geopolitics will continue to shape energy futures through the influence of TNCs, OPEC's potential re-emergence, competition for Arctic resources, and the balance between energy equity, security and sustainability
- Multiple emerging technologies including nuclear fusion, OTEC, solar fuels, and saltwater greenhouse technology promise to revolutionise energy and water availability
- The pace of energy transition will be determined by the interplay of technological innovation, economic forces, environmental pressures, and political decisions