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12 cards from this deck
Average outcome from random experiment repeated many times
E(x)=∑x⋅P(x)E(x) = \sum x \cdot P(x)E(x)=∑x⋅P(x)
The expected value
Each possible outcome
The probability of each outcome
Multiply each outcome by its probability, then add all results
When expected payout = 0 (break even)
When expected payout > 0 (win in long run)
When expected payout < 0 (lose in long run)
Actual average approaches expected value over many trials
No, it doesn't need to be one of the actual outcomes
Expected payout minus cost to play
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