Patterns of Urbanisation since 1945 (AQA A-Level Geography): Revision Notes
Patterns of Urbanisation since 1945
What is urbanisation?
Urbanisation is the process by which an increasing proportion of a country's population lives in towns and cities.
Urbanisation has been one of the most significant global trends since 1945. Understanding these patterns helps us see how the world's population distribution has changed dramatically over the past 75 years.
Global trends in urbanisation
Between 1950 and 2014, the number of people living in urban areas increased dramatically from 746 million to 3.9 billion. This represents a more than fivefold increase in just over six decades.
Key statistics show the rapid pace of change:
- 1976: 38% of the world's population lived in urban areas
- 2018: 55.3% of the global population lived in urban areas
- 2050 (projected): 66% of the world's population will live in urban areas
This means that in less than 75 years, urban populations will have shifted from being a minority to a clear majority of the world's people.
The shift from 38% urban in 1976 to a projected 66% by 2050 represents a fundamental transformation in how humanity lives. This has profound implications for infrastructure, resources, and environmental planning.
Regional variations in urbanisation
Urbanisation levels vary significantly across different regions of the world. Some areas are highly urbanised, whilst others remain predominantly rural.
Most urbanised regions (2018 data):
- Northern America: 82% living in urban areas
- Latin America and the Caribbean: 81% living in urban areas
- Europe: 74% living in urban areas
Least urbanised regions (2018 data):
- Africa: 43% living in urban areas
- Asia: 50% living in urban areas
This pattern reflects different stages of economic development and historical urbanisation processes. Developed regions industrialised earlier, leading to earlier urbanisation, whilst developing regions are now experiencing rapid urban growth as they develop economically.
However, these regional differences are set to change significantly in the coming decades.
Future projections for urban growth
Asia and Africa are expected to experience the fastest urban growth over the next few decades. The World Bank predicts that close to 90% of the increase in the global urban population between 2018 and 2050 will occur in these two continents.
Country-specific projections (2018-2050)
Three countries are expected to account for 35% of the projected growth in the world's urban population:
Major Contributors to Global Urban Growth (2018-2050)
The following three countries will drive more than a third of all urban population growth globally:
- India: Expected to add 404 million urban dwellers (416 million total growth)
- China: Expected to add 292 million urban dwellers (255 million total growth)
- Nigeria: Expected to add 189 million urban dwellers (212 million total growth)
Together, these three nations will add approximately 885 million people to the world's urban population.
The total world urban population is projected to surpass 6 billion by 2045, with much of this expected growth occurring in low-income countries.
Urban areas yet to be built
An interesting aspect of future urbanisation is that many areas projected to be urban by 2040 have not yet actually been built. Medium-sized cities and cities with fewer than one million inhabitants will see particularly rapid growth.
In India alone, it is predicted that 70% of cities expected in the future have yet to be built. This presents both enormous challenges and opportunities for sustainable urban planning and development.
Cities experiencing population decline
Whilst most cities are growing, some have experienced population decline in recent years. This occurs due to several factors:
Common Causes of Urban Population Decline:
- Economic contraction: Cities like Detroit, USA, have seen population loss due to industrial decline and job losses
- Low fertility rates: Cities such as Nagasaki (Japan) and Busan (South Korea) are experiencing decline due to ageing populations and fewer births
- Emigration: Cities like Poznan, Poland, have lost population as people move elsewhere seeking better opportunities
- Natural disasters: Events such as Hurricane Katrina led to population decline in New Orleans, USA
These examples show that urbanisation is not a uniform process, and local factors can reverse growth trends even whilst global urbanisation continues.
Remember!
Key Points to Remember:
- Urbanisation is the process by which an increasing proportion of a country's population lives in towns and cities
- Global urban population has grown from 746 million (1950) to 3.9 billion (2014) and is projected to reach 66% of total population by 2050
- Regional variations exist: Northern America, Latin America and Europe are most urbanised (74-82%), whilst Africa and Asia remain more rural (43-50%)
- Asia and Africa will account for 90% of future urban growth, with India, China and Nigeria leading the way
- Some cities experience population decline due to economic contraction, low fertility rates, emigration or natural disasters