Blair as Leader (AQA A-Level History): Revision Notes
Blair as Leader
Electoral performance
Tony Blair's electoral achievements marked a historic turning point for the Labour Party. Before his leadership, Labour had not won a general election since 1974, suffering four consecutive defeats between 1979 and 1992. The 1983 election manifesto had been dismissed by some within the party as the "longest suicide note in history," and the 1992 defeat left Labour trailing the Conservatives despite holding a narrow lead in opinion polls.
The 1997 landslide
Blair led Labour to power in 1997 with a commanding 179-seat majority. The party won 43% of the vote, securing 419 seats compared to the Conservatives' 165. This represented a 13-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives in the popular vote. The scale of this victory was such that Blair initially retained contingency plans for a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, designed to prevent any anti-Conservative majority from fragmenting.
The Conservative Party's reputation for economic competence had been severely damaged by Black Wednesday in 1992, when Britain's undignified exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism undermined public confidence in their economic management. This event cast a long shadow over Conservative electoral prospects throughout the 1990s.
Several factors contributed to this triumph. The Conservatives had not recovered from Black Wednesday in 1992, when Britain's undignified exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism destroyed their reputation for economic competence. Before Blair became leader in 1994, Labour already held a 23% lead in opinion polls, suggesting that public sentiment had shifted decisively in favour of change. The Tories had exhausted their electoral welcome after 18 years in power.
The 2001 election
The 2001 result was almost a carbon copy of 1997, with Labour's Commons majority reduced only marginally despite expectations of a Conservative recovery. Labour won 41% of the vote and 413 seats. However, this election saw voter turnout drop sharply to just 59%, the lowest since 1918. The reduction in Labour's majority was minimal, demonstrating both the party's continued dominance and the electorate's growing disengagement.
The dramatic fall in voter turnout to 59% in 2001 represented a historic low for modern British elections and signaled growing public disengagement with the political process. This trend would continue to affect the democratic legitimacy of subsequent electoral victories.
The 2005 election
Blair secured a third consecutive victory in 2005, though on a reduced but still respectable overall majority of 66 seats. Labour won 35% of the vote and 355 seats. This made Blair only the second Labour leader (after Harold Wilson) to win three successive terms, and he had served for two and a half of these before setting his own retirement date. During his time in office, he outlasted four Conservative leaders.
Interpreting Blair's electoral record
The Paradox of Blair's Electoral Success:
While these victories appear impressive on the surface, their interpretation depends heavily on selective use of statistics. Labour's share of the vote in 1997 was lower than in any general election between 1945 and 1966, excluding the three successive losses of the 1950s. The 2005 victory was achieved on a lower overall vote than any previous majority administration.
While these victories appear impressive, their interpretation depends on selective use of statistics. Labour's share of the vote in 1997 was lower than in any general election between 1945 and 1966, excluding the three successive losses of the 1950s. Between 1997 and 2001, Labour's vote share fell by 2.4 percentage points, a larger drop than the Conservatives experienced between 1979 and 1992. The 2005 victory was achieved on a lower overall vote than any previous majority administration.
The New Labour era witnessed a sharp fall in British electoral participation. Average voter turnout at post-war elections had been around 75%, but this dropped to 59% in 2001 and 61% in 2005. If public confidence in New Labour declined over its time in office, it was fortunate that the electorate showed a comparable lack of faith in the Conservative opposition. The vagaries of Britain's voting system benefited Labour by magnifying the scale of its electoral triumphs.
Elections in May 2007, just months before Blair's resignation, revealed the extent of Labour's declining support across the UK. The party fell below the SNP in the contest for control of the Scottish parliament, secured its lowest share of the Welsh vote for almost 90 years, and controlled fewer councillors and councils in England than at any time since the early 1970s.
Elections in May 2007, just months before Blair's resignation, saw Labour fall below the SNP in the contest for control of the Scottish parliament, secure its lowest share of the Welsh vote for almost 90 years, and suffer fewer councillors and councils in England than at any time since the early 1970s. Blair presided over a marked decline in the number of Labour voters and party members. The party he handed over to Gordon Brown in 2007 was in a weaker position than the party he had inherited from John Smith 13 years earlier.
Blair's personal popularity also fell sharply. At the time of Diana, Princess of Wales's death in September 1997, his approval rating stood at over 90%, making him the most popular Prime Minister since records began. Ten years later he was widely reviled, seen even by many Labour supporters as untrustworthy and dishonest. His successor and the candidates for the party's deputy leadership, vacated by John Prescott, all spoke of the need to restore trust in government.
According to one leading authority on electoral politics, Blair's electoral record combines record-breaking success with dramatic decline. Labour's return to power in 1997 was not entirely a function of New Labour's development into a highly effective election-winning machine. The Conservatives never recovered from Black Wednesday, and their exit from the ERM deprived them of their most important electoral asset: a reputation for economic competence. Even before Blair became leader in 1994, Labour had recorded a 23% lead in opinion polls. There was a growing feeling that the Tories had outstayed their welcome and that it was time for a change.
Character and public appeal
The Prime Minister enjoyed wide appeal with the electorate. Happily married with a young family, he seemed unlike the normal run of politicians and more someone to whom the average voter could relate. Here was a relatively young and relatively ordinary leader who understood the concerns of, and spoke the same language as, ordinary people.
The Eccleston Affair (1997):
In the first year of his premiership, Blair's whiter-than-white image was challenged when suspicion arose that the boss of Formula One motor racing had secured an exemption from a forthcoming ban on tobacco advertising in return for a donation to the Labour Party.
Blair's Response: The Prime Minister subjected himself to a television interview with the BBC's John Humphrys, insisting that he would never do anything improper and that he never had. He famously stated that most people who had dealt with him thought him "a pretty straight sort of person."
Outcome: Blair's ratings in the opinion polls remained high and the government enjoyed an unusually long honeymoon period.
When, in the first year of his premiership, Blair's whiter-than-white image was challenged by the Eccleston affair – where suspicion arose that the boss of Formula One motor racing had secured an exemption from a forthcoming ban on tobacco advertising in return for a donation to the Labour Party – the Prime Minister subjected himself to a television interview with the BBC's John Humphrys. Blair insisted that he would never do anything improper and that he never had. Most people who had dealt with him thought him a pretty straight sort of person. Blair's ratings in the opinion polls remained high and the government enjoyed an unusually long honeymoon period.
However, over time and perhaps inevitably, the Prime Minister's image did tarnish. It was always partly the well-choreographed product of a highly professional public relations machine. After ten years in office and buffeted by the sort of events that had befallen every previous premier, it was only natural that far fewer electors were seduced by Blair's public image – open-necked shirt, tea mug in hand, estuary English. He was, after all, the product of a distinguished public school and Oxford University. It was his Conservative predecessor, John Major, and not he who had risen from a genuinely humble background.
Developing an ideology in opposition was one thing; deploying it in government quite another. Blair personally found that practical politics, the art of the possible, required both compromise and pragmatism, as well as conviction. Over time, it probably became harder, not easier, to define what New Labour was all about.
Developing an ideology in opposition was one thing; deploying it in government quite another. Blair personally found that practical politics, the art of the possible, required both compromise and pragmatism, as well as conviction. Over time, it probably became harder, not easier, to define what New Labour was all about. Some critics on the left suggested that the Prime Minister's philosophy was little more than a disguised form of Conservatism – a critique which did less than justice to a genuinely progressive strand in Blair's thinking. The impact of New Labour in government was unlike the experience of any previous Labour administration. However, the difficulty of establishing a clear ideology is well illustrated in the fate of the so-called Third Way.
The Third Way
In a 1998 pamphlet on the Third Way, Blair defined four values essential for a just society: equal worth, opportunity for all, responsibility and community. Peter Riddell complained that the Third Way was infused with grand but often vague theories and overreached itself by exaggerating its novelty and coherence.
The Third Way: More Tactic Than Philosophy?
Sir Christopher Meyer, Britain's ambassador in Washington, was blunt about his assessment after being obliged to attend a Third Way seminar. As he sat fighting off sleep in the conspicuous front row, it became ever clearer that the Third Way was less a coherent philosophy of government, more a tactic for election winning: how to hold your base and reach out to the centre ground at the same time. It is as old as the hills.
Sir Christopher Meyer, Britain's ambassador in Washington, obliged to attend a Third Way seminar, was blunt. As he sat fighting off sleep in the conspicuous front row, it became ever clearer that the Third Way was less a coherent philosophy of government, more a tactic for election winning: how to hold your base and reach out to the centre ground at the same time. It is as old as the hills. Third Way language was largely dropped after New Labour's first term in office. Robin Cook pondered in August 2001, "Whatever happened to the Third Way?"
Key Points to Remember:
- Blair led Labour to three consecutive general election victories (1997, 2001, 2005), ending an 18-year period of Conservative rule and achieving what no previous Labour leader except Wilson had managed.
- While the electoral victories appeared commanding in terms of seats won, Labour's share of the popular vote declined steadily from 43% in 1997 to 35% in 2005, and voter turnout fell sharply to historic lows during this period.
- Blair initially enjoyed exceptionally high personal approval ratings (over 90% in 1997), but his popularity declined substantially over his decade in power, with many viewing him as untrustworthy by 2007.
- The Third Way represented Blair's attempt to create a distinctive ideological framework based on equal worth, opportunity, responsibility and community, though critics dismissed it as vague and more of an electoral tactic than a coherent philosophy.