Conservatives in Decline (AQA A-Level History): Revision Notes
Conservatives in Decline
Electoral pressures and political context
By the early 1960s, the Conservative government faced mounting electoral challenges. Macmillan recognised in March 1962 that after ten years of uninterrupted prosperity, voters might feel inclined to seek change, observing 'I fear the truth is that after ten years of unparalleled prosperity, the people are bored'. This reflected a natural democratic tendency for electorates to desire fresh leadership after extended periods under one party.
Democratic theory suggests that extended periods of single-party rule can lead to voter fatigue, regardless of policy success. This phenomenon helps explain why even prosperous periods can end with electoral defeat.
Labour's position improved considerably under Harold Wilson, who assumed leadership following Hugh Gaitskell's sudden death in January 1963. Wilson proved adept at uniting Labour's competing factions and presented a dynamic, modern image that contrasted sharply with the aristocratic Douglas-Home. His ability to project competence through television appearances gave Labour renewed electoral credibility beyond its traditional support base.
Economic difficulties undermine Conservative competence
The government's reputation suffered particularly from economic management problems. Throughout the early 1960s, Britain experienced recurring balance of payments crises (the relationship between the value of exports and imports, with deficits occurring when imports exceed exports). These crises provided clear evidence that Britain struggled to maintain its international financial position.
The government responded with deflationary measures including increases in the bank rate (the interest rate at which the Bank of England lends money, which determines commercial bank lending rates to the public) and restrictions on hire-purchase agreements. These policies became characteristic of Selwyn Lloyd's Chancellorship between 1960 and 1962, when economic commentators identified an era of 'stop-go' - alternating between stimulus and restraint. Lloyd's difficulties managing inflation whilst maintaining growth damaged perceptions of Conservative economic competence, with the government appearing unable to deliver both stable prices and sustained expansion.
The 'stop-go' cycle represented a fundamental weakness in Conservative economic management. The inability to simultaneously control inflation and maintain growth undermined the party's traditional claim to economic competence - a reputation that had been central to their electoral success since 1951.
Macmillan's authority weakened further when he dismissed Lloyd alongside a third of his cabinet in July 1962, in what became known as the 'Night of the Long Knives' after Macmillan's infamous statement about the need to remove the Long Knives. The Prime Minister's handling of these Treasury resignations in 1958 - initially dismissed as 'little local difficulties' - had created an impression of complacency. Critics increasingly viewed Macmillan as disconnected from contemporary realities, a perception reinforced by his evident discomfort with television and the emerging medium's role in political communication.
Foreign policy setbacks
Macmillan experienced damaging personal setbacks in foreign affairs that diminished his authority. In January 1963, French President Charles de Gaulle vetoed Britain's application to join the European Economic Community (EEC). The Prime Minister regarded British membership as essential for maintaining the country's standing on the world stage, making this rejection particularly wounding. Macmillan never fully recovered his personal authority following this rebuff.
Earlier, in 1960, the government had cancelled the Blue Streak missile programme, which aimed to develop Britain's independent nuclear deterrent for the next generation. Macmillan subsequently secured an American-built alternative through negotiations with President Kennedy. Whilst this demonstrated diplomatic skill, it simultaneously exposed Britain's reduced capability in advanced military technology and highlighted the country's dependence on American support.
Britain's Declining Global Status
By 1951, Britain had held unequivocal recognition as the world's third greatest power, ranking behind only the United States and Soviet Union. By the early 1960s, this status appeared far less certain, contributing to a sense of national decline. The EEC veto and the Blue Streak cancellation symbolised this diminished position on the world stage.
Scandals compound political damage
The government faced a succession of scandals during the early 1960s that, whilst not stemming from policy failures or ministerial incompetence, cumulatively undermined its position and public confidence.
The Vassall case in 1962 involved a homosexual British civil servant who maintained links with a junior minister and had been passing secrets to the Soviet Union. The minister concerned resigned when their relationship became public. Though allegations of impropriety proved unfounded, the affair generated damaging publicity centred on national security and the activities of the prostitute Christine Keeler.
The Profumo Affair: A Crisis of Trust
More seriously, the Profumo affair in 1963 emerged when War Minister John Profumo became entangled in scandal involving Keeler. Profumo's indiscretions were compounded by Keeler's simultaneous relationship with Captain Ivanov, an official at the Soviet embassy, raising genuine concerns about breaches of national security. When the minister denied any impropriety in Parliament, only for this denial to prove false, his career ended abruptly.
The episode damaged Macmillan both through Profumo's readiness to accept his somewhat pathetic excuse that he did not 'live among young people', and through the Prime Minister's own handling of the crisis, which suggested he was out of touch with modern society.
Leadership crisis and succession
Macmillan's resignation in October 1963 inflicted further damage upon the Conservative Party. Though he departed due to sudden illness rather than political pressure (far from the terminal condition initially suspected), the circumstances of his replacement proved problematic.
His successor, Douglas-Home, lacked widespread legitimacy. Home had to be extracted from relative obscurity in the House of Lords and emerged through informal 'customary processes' rather than a transparent election. Two senior ministers, Iain Macleod and Enoch Powell, refused to serve under him. The Spectator delivered a devastating assessment of how Macmillan's manoeuvres behind the scenes had orchestrated the succession from his sickbed, reinforcing perceptions of an outdated, undemocratic selection method.
All subsequent Conservative leaders would secure their positions through some form of election rather than this discredited system. The Douglas-Home succession marked the end of the traditional 'emergence' of Conservative leaders through informal consultation and established the principle of democratic selection.
Douglas-Home struggled with television appearances - even his make-up artist reportedly despaired of him - and acknowledged his relative incompetence on economic matters. He appeared inept when addressing economic policy, weaknesses ruthlessly exploited by Wilson, who performed considerably more effectively in broadcast debates. Yet Douglas-Home exceeded expectations during the campaign itself, demonstrating straightforwardness and honesty that resonated with voters on the hustings (campaign platforms and election activities).
The 1964 election and partial recovery
Paul Channon, Parliamentary Private Secretary to R.A. Butler, expressed the prevailing scepticism within Conservative circles: 'How we can be expected in 1964 to go forward to victory under the 14th Earl of Home passes all understanding.' Despite these doubts, Douglas-Home achieved a surprisingly strong performance in the October 1964 election. Labour secured victory, but by the narrowest of margins. Subsequent calculations suggested that as few as 900 additional votes, distributed strategically through marginal constituencies, could have produced a Conservative victory.
Labour's vote had actually declined from 1959 levels, with the party squeezed back into government through Tory votes lost to the Liberals - representing something of a reversal of 1951's outcome. This demonstrates that Labour's victory was less a mandate for Wilson than a rejection of Conservative governance.
Whilst Douglas-Home's personal defects remained apparent, he demonstrated that the Conservatives had achieved partial recovery from the low point reached at the end of Macmillan's premiership. The party remained competitive despite the accumulated difficulties of the early 1960s.
Remember!
Key Points to Remember:
- Economic mismanagement - recurring balance of payments crises and 'stop-go' policies under Selwyn Lloyd (1960-62) damaged the Conservative reputation for economic competence.
- Night of the Long Knives (July 1962) - Macmillan's dismissal of Lloyd and a third of the cabinet created impressions of panic and poor judgement rather than decisive leadership.
- Major setbacks 1960-63 - de Gaulle's EEC veto (January 1963), Blue Streak cancellation (1960), Vassall case (1962), and Profumo affair (1963) cumulatively weakened the government's authority and public standing.
- Flawed succession - Douglas-Home's emergence through informal processes (October 1963) lacked legitimacy, with two senior ministers refusing to serve under him and critics highlighting his selection as undemocratic.
- Narrow defeat 1964 - Despite accumulated problems, Labour won by the smallest margin, with as few as 900 votes in key constituencies potentially decisive, demonstrating Conservative resilience under Douglas-Home's straightforward campaign approach.