Success in Winning the Presidential Election of 2008 (Edexcel A-Level History): Revision Notes
Success in Winning the Presidential Election of 2008
The Republican nomination and John McCain
The Republican Party held its National Convention on 1 September 2008, where they officially confirmed John McCain of Arizona as their candidate for the presidency. McCain, like Obama, had to compete against several rivals to secure the Republican nomination. His most significant challenger was Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts. McCain also faced opposition from numerous other candidates who withdrew early from the race, including Alan Keyes, an African American politician who had previously opposed Obama in the 2004 Illinois Senate election.
The path to the Republican nomination was competitive, with McCain facing multiple challengers before emerging as the party's official candidate. This internal competition mirrored the contested Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary Clinton.
The general election campaign
From early September until the first Tuesday in November, the main presidential contest took place between Obama and McCain. However, as is typical in American elections, several minor party candidates also stood for election, though they had no realistic chance of winning. These included:
- Ralph Nader (Independent)
- Bob Barr (Libertarian Party)
- Cynthia McKinney (Green Party)
- Alan Keyes (Independent, having failed to gain Republican support)
While minor party candidates regularly appear on American presidential ballots, the winner-takes-all electoral system in most states makes it virtually impossible for third-party candidates to win electoral votes, let alone the presidency.
The economic crisis of 2008
The scale of the crisis
The state of the American economy became the most critical issue in the 2008 presidential election. An overwhelming 60 percent of voters identified the economy as their primary concern when casting their ballots. After several years of steady economic expansion in the early 2000s, the United States had fallen into a recession by 2008. During the height of the election campaign, the American economy appeared to be in complete collapse. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (the American equivalent of the Bank of England's governor), described it as the most severe economic crisis the United States had experienced since the end of the Second World War.
The timing of the economic crisis was crucial to the election outcome. The collapse occurred during the final months of the campaign when voters were making their final decisions, dramatically altering the political landscape in Obama's favor.
Key economic events in September 2008
A single week in September 2008 demonstrated the severity of the crisis:
- Lehman Brothers Bank, one of America's most respected financial institutions, filed for bankruptcy
- The insurance company AIG received an emergency loan of $85 billion from the federal government to prevent its financial collapse
- The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States contracted to as low as -3.8 percent
- Unemployment climbed to 10 percent
These economic problems were not unique to America – similar crises affected other Western economies, including the United Kingdom, and the entire global economic system seemed at risk of collapse.
Political response to the crisis
President George Bush requested new powers from Congress to implement a bailout plan for the American banking sector, which would cost taxpayers billions of dollars. Senator McCain took the significant step of suspending his campaign in September to return to Washington DC to vote on Bush's emergency economic rescue package.
How the economic crisis benefited Obama
The economic situation strongly favoured a candidate who had consistently promoted 2008 as a time requiring fundamental change in the federal government. Obama published a book in 2008 called Change We Can Believe In, which outlined his vision for America's future under his presidency. The book received endorsements from influential figures:
- Warren Buffett, a billionaire investor, stated that Obama possessed the correct vision for America's direction
- Elizabeth Warren, co-author of The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle Class Mothers and Fathers are Going Broke, believed Obama courageously addressed the crucial issues affecting family economic security
Obama's message of "change" had been central to his campaign from the beginning, but the economic crisis gave this message far greater resonance. Voters increasingly saw change not just as desirable, but as absolutely necessary.
Polling trends
At the start of September, both Obama and McCain were equally matched in opinion polls, each receiving approximately 46 percent support. However, as the economic crisis intensified, Obama's lead grew substantially. By October, voters increasingly viewed Obama as the candidate who could deliver meaningful change. As a Republican, McCain suffered from his association with the Bush administration, which many voters blamed for the economic problems.
Polling Trajectory During the Economic Crisis:
Early September: Obama and McCain tied at 46% each
Mid-September: Following the Lehman Brothers collapse and AIG bailout, Obama's support began rising
October: Obama established a clear lead as voters associated the economic crisis with Republican leadership
This polling shift demonstrated how external events, particularly economic crises, can dramatically influence electoral outcomes even in the final weeks of a campaign.
Vice-presidential candidates
The strategic importance of vice-presidential selection
Presidential candidates have the sole responsibility for choosing their vice-presidential running mate. Traditionally, candidates attempt to 'balance the ticket' by selecting someone from a different geographical region to broaden their electoral appeal. Historical examples include:
- John F Kennedy (Massachusetts) choosing Lyndon Johnson (Texas) in 1960
- Ronald Reagan (California) choosing George H.W. Bush (Texas)
The vice-presidential selection reveals much about a candidate's strategic thinking and perceived weaknesses. Candidates typically choose running mates who compensate for their own limitations, whether geographical, experiential, or demographic.
Obama's choice: Joe Biden
Barack Obama selected Joe Biden of Delaware as his vice-presidential candidate. Although Delaware is one of America's smallest states, Biden was chosen for two key reasons:
- His extensive experience in government
- His expertise in foreign affairs, an area where Obama was considered weak
Biden had served as a United States senator since 1973, providing the ticket with considerable governmental experience.
Obama's relative inexperience in foreign policy was seen as a significant weakness. By choosing Biden, who had decades of experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Obama addressed this vulnerability and reassured voters concerned about his readiness to handle international crises.
McCain's choice: Sarah Palin
John McCain chose Sarah Palin, the former Governor of Alaska, as his running mate. This made her only the second woman ever selected for the vice-presidential position (the first being Geraldine Ferraro, who ran with Walter Mondale for the Democrats in 1984, though Mondale was heavily defeated). Initially, McCain's decision appeared bold and potentially game-changing. Following the announcement of Palin's candidacy, opinion polls showed...
Key Points to Remember:
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The 2008 economic crisis was the dominant issue in the election, with 60% of voters citing it as their main concern
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Major economic catastrophes in September 2008 (Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, AIG bailout) occurred during the campaign, dramatically shifting the political landscape
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Obama's consistent message of 'change' resonated powerfully as the economy worsened, while McCain suffered from association with the unpopular Bush administration
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Obama's polling lead increased significantly as the economic crisis developed, rising from 46% (equal with McCain) in early September to a clear lead by October
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Strategic vice-presidential selections reflected each candidate's weaknesses: Obama chose the experienced Joe Biden to compensate for his limited foreign policy expertise, whilst McCain selected Sarah Palin in a bold attempt to energise his campaign