The role of incumbency in elections (Edexcel A-Level Politics): Flashcards

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The role of incumbency in elections
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Incumbency meaning

Sitting president seeking re-election

Incumbents lost in last 12 presidential elections

Only 4

Most recent incumbent to lose

Donald Trump in 2020

Name recognition advantage for incumbents

Familiarity creates stability & continuity appeal

Bush 9/11 incumbency advantage

War on Terror kept him in media, strong leadership image

Obama 2012 campaign funds raised

Over $700 million

Obama 2012 achievements cited

ACA, Great Recession recovery, killed bin Laden

Incumbent network advantage

Political allies, organizers, experienced campaign staff

H.W. Bush 1992 loss cause

Broke 'no new taxes' pledge, lost trust

Carter 1980 defeat factor

Voters wanted change: economy struggles & Iran hostage crisis

Trump COVID-19 impact on 2020

Criticised for handling, became focal point of blame

Obama Hurricane Sandy 2012 benefit

Response showed competence & compassion pre-election

Reagan re-election vote margin change

Doubled popular vote margin

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