Voting Behaviour (AQA A-Level Politics): Revision Notes

Voting Behaviour

What is voting behaviour?

Voting behaviour refers to the analysis of why people vote the way they do. Political scientists place voters into categories to help identify patterns and allow meaningful comparisons between different groups.

Understanding voting behaviour is complex because voters make electoral decisions based on a combination of multiple factors rather than a single consideration.

Factors influencing voting behaviour

Electoral choices result from numerous interacting elements:

• Leadership and personality: the appeal of particular candidates or party leaders can significantly influence voter decisions
• Manifesto promises: the attractiveness and relevance of policy commitments matter to voters
• Campaign and media influence: how leaders perform in televised debates and the impact of political advertising, particularly on social media
• Voter demographics: characteristics such as social class, gender, ethnicity and increasingly age shape voting patterns
• Personal political views: individual priorities on issues like the economy, taxation, the NHS, environmental concerns, education, immigration or racial justice
• Government performance: voters assess whether to retain or replace the current government based on its record
• Tactical voting: some voters choose the 'least bad' option or vote strategically to prevent a strongly disliked candidate or party from winning
• Electoral system considerations: voters may worry about 'wasting' their votes on candidates or parties unlikely to win

A campaign involves working in an organised way towards a political goal. During election campaigns, parties attempt to mobilise support and persuade undecided voters.

Models of voting behaviour

Political scientists use two main frameworks to understand voting behaviour:

The primacy model emphasises long-term factors such as social class, age and ethnicity. This approach focuses on voter demographics and suggests that voting patterns remain relatively stable over time, with change occurring primarily when voters feel a party no longer adequately represents their interests.

The recency model emphasises short-term factors such as current issues and leadership qualities. This framework suggests that voting behaviour is more volatile and unpredictable, with voters responding to immediate political circumstances.

Another important concept is valence issues. These are issues that voters uniformly like (such as healthcare) or dislike (such as corruption). Whilst all parties claim to support the NHS, for example, voters disagree about which party would best manage and resource it. Valence issues create competition between parties based on perceived competence rather than fundamental policy disagreements.

Historical patterns: class-based voting

For much of the post-1945 period, social class was considered the most important factor in UK voting behaviour. The working class predominantly supported Labour whilst middle and upper-class voters mainly backed the Conservatives. The Liberal Party retained some appeal among sections of the middle class and provided an outlet for protest votes.

Both main parties had sets of core voters largely defined by social class. Politics was organised around class divisions, with parties adopting policies specifically designed to appeal to their core supporters. Large parts of the country were considered safe seats for one party or another due to their class composition. Labour, for instance, went virtually unchallenged in former coalfield areas such as the northeast or South Yorkshire.

Four key changes in voting behaviour

From the 1970s onwards, wider social factors including deindustrialisation, immigration, Britain's relationship with Europe and changes in social attitudes meant that class became far less easy to define. This produced four significant changes:

Class dealignment: As class has become harder to determine and less important in how voters identify themselves, it is now much less significant as an indicator of voting choice. People no longer vote primarily according to social class.

Partisan dealignment: As parties have become less class-based, fewer people feel that any particular party 'is for people like them'. Instead, voters behave more like political consumers, 'shopping around' for the best combination of policies and personalities rather than remaining loyal to a single party.

More floating or swing voters: A key consequence of partisan dealignment is that more voters are less faithful to individual parties and are receptive to appeals from various political options. Floating or swing voters are traditionally not loyal to any one party and are therefore open to persuasion and political advertising. This means parties must work harder to appeal to a broad base of voters rather than simply focusing on mobilising their core support.

The rise of identity politics: Although somewhat vague as a concept, identity politics generally refers to discussion and campaigning around issues relating to one's identity. The focus typically falls on women, minority ethnic groups, immigrants, LGBTQ+ people and minority religious communities. It represents an alternative or supplement to social class as a way of self-identification. This trend has further complicated how we categorise individuals in society, particularly since most people possess multiple cultural identities.

The rise of third parties

Another complicating development is the emergence of more significant third and minor parties. Whilst Labour and the Conservatives still largely predominate (together securing 75.8% of the overall vote in 2019), smaller parties now play a more substantial role than 50 years ago.

Nationalist parties in Wales and Scotland make multi-party elections the norm in those regions. Eurosceptic parties such as UKIP and the Brexit Party have performed especially well in European elections and often had a 'spoiler' effect in general elections, drawing votes away from both Labour and the Conservatives. Nigel Farage's Brexit Party decision not to contest Conservative-held seats in the 2019 election undoubtedly helped the Conservatives.

Age as the new class

Political scientists increasingly conclude that age is one of the best predictors of voting behaviour, surpassing class, gender or geography in importance. Put simply, the older a voter is, the more likely they are to vote Conservative. In the 2019 election, the tipping point was age 39.

Evidence from the 2019 general election:

• Among 18-24 year olds: 21% voted Conservative, 56% voted Labour
• Among 25-29 year olds: 23% voted Conservative, 54% voted Labour
• Among 30-39 year olds: 30% voted Conservative, 46% voted Labour
• Among 40-49 year olds: 41% voted Conservative, 35% voted Labour
• Among 50-59 year olds: 49% voted Conservative, 28% voted Labour
• Among 60-69 year olds: 57% voted Conservative, 22% voted Labour
• Among those 70+: 67% voted Conservative, 14% voted Labour

Evidence from the 2016 EU referendum:

An identical pattern appeared in the 2016 EU referendum (a referendum is a direct vote on a policy measure, the opposite of representative government). Younger age groups voted predominantly to Remain in the EU, whilst older age groups voted predominantly to Leave. The pattern was consistent across all age brackets from 18-24 through to 65+.

Reasons for age-based voting patterns:

It is difficult to be completely precise about why age plays such a significant role. The age gap in voting behaviour does not simply reflect the ages of party leaders – Jeremy Corbyn was considerably older than Boris Johnson in 2019. Potential explanations include:

• Brexit positioning: The 2019 election focused heavily on Brexit. Younger voters were predominantly pro-Remain, possibly reflecting a more globalist worldview, whilst issues of national sovereignty mattered more to older voters.
• Social conservatism: Older voters tend to be more socially conservative and concerned about issues such as immigration, where the Conservatives were perceived as tougher. Younger voters focus more on issues like climate change, where Labour was viewed more positively.
• Economic circumstances: Changes to employment patterns, reduced job security and rising house prices mean younger voters are often poorer and less likely to own their own homes than older voters. Labour has traditionally appealed more strongly to low-income voters, whilst the Conservatives appeal to homeowners and the better off.

Case study: the 1983 general election

Context and background

The 1983 election took place on 9 June against the backdrop of rising unemployment (over 3 million) but also military victory over Argentina in the 1982 Falklands War. The election cemented the Conservative premiership of Margaret Thatcher (the 'Iron Lady'), who had first been elected in 1979 and went on to win a third term in 1987.

A key feature was a divided opposition. Many Labour moderates, led by the 'Gang of Four' (Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Bill Rodgers and Shirley Williams), had left the party in 1981 to establish the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The SDP joined with the Liberal Party to form the SDP-Liberal Alliance, which posed a major challenge particularly to Labour. The two parties would later merge in 1988 to form the Liberal Democrats.

Results and significance

The 1983 election represented one of Labour's worst-ever defeats. The Conservatives substantially increased their majority from 43 seats in 1979 to 144 seats. In terms of seats won, this was a resounding Conservative landslide.

This election represents a classic example of the 'spoiler' effect, where a third party plays a key role in determining the outcome by splitting votes that might otherwise have gone to one of the two main parties.

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