Factors That Affect Electoral Outcomes (AQA A-Level Politics): Revision Notes
Factors That Affect Electoral Outcomes
Electoral outcomes in the UK are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, from media relationships to party organisation and the broader political landscape. Understanding these factors is essential for analysing why parties succeed or fail in elections.
The relationship between political parties and the media
The media plays a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes, though the nature of this relationship varies across different media platforms.
Television and broadcast media regulation
UK political parties face strict regulations when it comes to broadcast media. Unlike the United States, where parties can purchase television airtime for political advertisements, this practice is prohibited in the UK. All terrestrial television operates under strict impartiality rules, meaning parties cannot buy airtime to promote their campaigns.
The BBC Charter enshrines political neutrality as a core principle, stating one of its aims is 'to provide impartial news and information'. This requirement for balanced and fair reporting applies to all broadcast news.
Despite these rules, politicians from across the political spectrum regularly accuse the BBC of bias, though the broadcaster must maintain neutrality by law.
National newspapers and political bias
Whilst broadcast media must remain impartial, national newspapers operate under no such restrictions. Nearly all UK newspapers maintain a strong political slant, openly supporting particular parties and ideologies.
The tabloid press, in particular, rarely shies away from expressing forceful political opinions. During the December 2019 general election campaign, newspapers made their positions abundantly clear through both headlines and editorial content:
Conservative-supporting papers:
- The Sun: "Jeremy Corbyn is the most dangerous man ever to stand for high office in Britain — use your vote to stop him"
- Daily Mail: "The most crucial vote since the War … and we cannot let it be the nightmare before Christmas"
- Daily Telegraph: "Vote Conservative to say 'yes' to Brexit and to reject Labour's politics of hate"
Labour/Liberal Democrat-supporting papers:
- Daily Mirror: "Banish the Blues by voting Red this Thursday"
- The Guardian: "The Guardian view on Boris Johnson's constitutional changes: he cannot be trusted"
- Financial Times: "Britain's fateful election offers no good choices"
Do newspapers influence electoral outcomes?
Newspapers often claim credit for electoral success. The most famous example occurred following John Major's unexpected Conservative victory in 1992, when The Sun proclaimed "It's The Sun Wot Won It". However, when questioned at the 2012 Leveson Inquiry (which investigated phone hacking by certain newspapers), proprietor Rupert Murdoch downplayed this influence, stating: "We don't have that sort of power."
Research Evidence on Newspaper Influence:
When The Sun switched its support to Tony Blair and Labour in 1997, research suggests it generated approximately 525,000 additional votes for Labour.
Similarly, when the paper switched back to supporting the Conservatives in 2010, it produced around 550,000 extra Conservative votes.
The Debate on Newspaper Influence:
Political scientists remain divided on whether newspapers truly change minds or simply:
- Reinforce existing opinions rather than convert voters
- Back likely winners to maintain credibility with their readership
The evidence suggests newspapers have some influence, but their power may be more limited than they claim.
The decline of print media and rise of social media
The influence of traditional newspapers has diminished significantly. National newspaper circulation in the UK has fallen sharply in recent years, fundamentally changing how parties approach media strategy.
Social media has become the new battleground for political campaigning. Parties now exercise far greater control over their messaging through online platforms and can purchase advertisements without needing to cultivate relationships with newspaper proprietors.
Social media advertising and targeting
Both the 2017 and 2019 general elections saw parties invest heavily in Facebook advertising, employing sophisticated targeted advertising techniques. Parties can now target voters by:
- Geographic location: Conservative NHS advertisements were specifically targeted at key marginal seats including Stroud and Abingdon
- Demographic profile: Age, gender, and interests can all be targeted
- Voter characteristics: Parties can identify and target specific voter groups
Targeted Conservative Advertisement (2019):
One Conservative advertisement was viewed over 250,000 times but only by female users. The text read: "We're recruiting 20,000 more police and giving them the powers they need to keep you safe."
This demonstrates the precision with which parties can target specific demographic groups with tailored messages.
Facebook Ad Library Report spending (October 2018 to May 2020):
- Liberal Democrats: £1,312,915 on 19,975 advertisements
- Labour: £1,219,315 on 7,647 advertisements
- Conservatives: £999,730 on 20,887 advertisements
Interestingly, the actual election result bore little relation to the amounts spent on online advertising, raising questions about cost-effectiveness of digital campaigns.
Main factors affecting parties and electoral outcomes
Whilst targeted media support influences electoral performance, numerous other factors determine how well parties perform in elections.
Relevance and attractiveness of main policies
Parties must offer policies that resonate with voter concerns and priorities. The Conservative slogan "Get Brexit Done" in 2019 proved highly effective because it offered a simple, clear solution to a divisive issue that had dominated politics for three years. By contrast, Labour's more complex Brexit policy failed to gain traction with voters who wanted clarity.
Policy relevance depends on:
- Addressing current voter concerns
- Offering clear, understandable solutions
- Matching the political mood
- Credibility and deliverability
Parties that fail to meet these criteria struggle to connect with voters, regardless of other campaign strengths.
Leadership
Strong, charismatic leadership can make or break an election campaign. A party leader must demonstrate:
- Communication skills: Ability to articulate policies clearly and persuasively
- Personality and authenticity: Voters respond to leaders who seem genuine
- Performance under pressure: Campaign events and debates test leadership qualities
Case study - 2017 general election leadership contrast:
Theresa May performed poorly, coming across as robotic and repetitive with her constant emphasis on "Strong and stable government". Her communication style alienated many voters and damaged the Conservative campaign.
Jeremy Corbyn, initially dismissed as an underdog, exceeded expectations. He connected particularly well with younger voters, receiving rapturous applause when appearing at Glastonbury Festival in both 2017 and 2019 – an unusual achievement for any party leader.
This contrast demonstrates how leadership performance can significantly shift electoral momentum during campaigns.
Committed and energised activists on the ground
Electoral success requires effective grassroots campaigning. Local activists perform essential functions:
- Distributing leaflets and campaign materials
- Door-to-door canvassing to speak with voters directly
- Coordinating constituency-level campaign activities
- Identifying and mobilising supporters on polling day
Parties with larger, more committed activist bases can conduct more extensive ground campaigns, particularly important in marginal constituencies where small vote shifts can determine outcomes.
Strength and situation of the opposition
A party's electoral prospects depend partly on the effectiveness of its opponents.
2019 general election opposition dynamics:
Boris Johnson proved a formidable, experienced campaigner for the Conservatives. His opponents faced various weaknesses:
- Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrat leader) was less assured and made a significant gamble by campaigning for an outright "stop Brexit" position without offering a second referendum or renegotiation
- The newly formed Brexit Party decided not to contest Conservative-held seats, preventing vote-splitting amongst Leave supporters in those constituencies
- Although the Brexit Party intervention in other seats cost the Conservatives some additional gains, its overall vote largely collapsed
These opposition weaknesses enhanced the Conservatives' electoral advantage beyond their own campaign strengths.
Party unity
Internal party cohesion significantly affects electoral performance. Divided parties project weakness and uncertainty.
Party unity matters because:
Voters perceive divided parties as unable to govern effectively. Internal conflicts undermine campaign messages and create damaging headlines that distract from policy announcements.
Conservative Party under May vs Johnson:
Under Theresa May, the Conservatives appeared in deep disarray over Brexit strategy. Boris Johnson largely resolved this by removing the whip from 21 rebel MPs. Several prominent figures, including former Chancellor Philip Hammond, chose not to contest their seats again, effectively neutralising internal opposition.
Labour's divisions:
Labour remained heavily factionalised throughout the 2017-2019 period. The party was dogged by accusations of anti-Semitism, leading several MPs, including Ian Austin, to resign from the party over the scandal. These internal conflicts undermined Labour's electoral appeal.
Electoral system distortions
The first-past-the-post electoral system significantly impacts electoral outcomes through its disproportional effects.
2019 general election results demonstrate system distortions:
Liberal Democrats:
- Vote share: 11.6% of total votes cast
- Seat share: Only 1.7% of parliamentary seats (11 seats)
Conservatives:
- Vote share: 43.6% of total votes
- Seat share: 56.2% of parliamentary seats (365 seats)
This dramatic disparity shows how the electoral system translates votes into seats unequally.
The electoral system therefore disadvantages smaller parties with geographically dispersed support, whilst benefiting parties with concentrated support in specific constituencies. This fundamentally shapes party strategy and campaign resource allocation.
The role of minor parties in political debate and setting the political agenda
Minor parties are smaller political parties that typically hold few or no MPs at Westminster, such as the Green Party and the Brexit Party. Despite their limited parliamentary representation, these parties play important roles in UK politics.
Defining the political agenda
Political agenda refers to the issues that become subjects of decision-making and debate amongst those holding political power. The agenda shifts according to time, circumstances, and which party governs.
Minor parties influence this agenda by:
- Raising issues neglected by major parties
- Applying pressure on mainstream parties to address specific concerns
- Mobilising voter sentiment around particular issues
- Forcing major parties to respond to their policy positions
This influence extends beyond their parliamentary representation, shaping national political discourse.
Nationalist parties: SNP and Plaid Cymru
Scottish National Party (SNP):
The SNP demonstrates how minor parties can wield significant influence through concentrated regional support. The party holds considerable power both at Westminster and in the Scottish Parliament.
2019 general election performance:
- Won 48 out of 59 Scottish seats
- Secured 45% of the total Scottish vote
- Largest Scottish political party
The SNP's strength forced David Cameron to grant a referendum on Scottish independence in 2014 – something he would almost certainly not have done without sustained SNP pressure. This demonstrates how minor parties can secure major constitutional changes despite lacking UK-wide electoral dominance.
Plaid Cymru:
Wales's nationalist party maintains a smaller but significant presence.
2019 general election performance:
- Won 4 out of 40 Welsh seats
- Secured just over 10% of the Welsh vote
Whilst less influential than the SNP, Plaid Cymru ensures Welsh interests receive attention in UK-wide political debate and keeps questions of Welsh devolution on the political agenda.
Remember!
Key takeaways on factors affecting electoral outcomes:
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Media influence has shifted: Traditional newspaper influence is declining as circulation falls, whilst social media allows parties greater control through targeted advertising, though its effectiveness remains debatable
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Multiple factors determine success: Electoral outcomes depend on policy relevance, leadership quality, activist commitment, opposition strength, party unity, and electoral system effects working together
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Leadership matters significantly: Strong communication skills and authentic personality can transform a party's electoral fortunes, as shown by contrasting performances of May and Corbyn in 2017
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The electoral system distorts outcomes: First-past-the-post significantly disadvantages parties like the Liberal Democrats, creating vast disparities between vote share and seat share
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Minor parties punch above their weight: Despite limited Westminster representation, parties like the SNP can fundamentally shape the political agenda through concentrated regional support and pressure on major parties