Seasonal variations (AQA GCSE Statistics): Flashcards
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What is seasonal variation in time series analysis?
What is seasonal variation in time series analysis?
Regular patterns repeating at specific times in cycles.
How to calculate seasonal variation at a point?
How to calculate seasonal variation at a point?
Seasonal variation = Actual value - Trend value.
Calculate seasonal variation for 2016: Actual 144, Trend 118.
Calculate seasonal variation for 2016: Actual 144, Trend 118.
Seasonal variation = 144 - 118 = 26.
What is the formula for mean seasonal variation?
What is the formula for mean seasonal variation?
Mean = Sum of seasonal variations / Number of observations.
Find mean seasonal variation: 26, 8, 14.
Find mean seasonal variation: 26, 8, 14.
Mean = (26 + 8 + 14) / 3 = 16.
How to predict future values using seasonal variations?
How to predict future values using seasonal variations?
Predicted value = Trend value + Mean seasonal variation.
Predict for 2019: Trend 112, Mean seasonal 16.
Predict for 2019: Trend 112, Mean seasonal 16.
Predicted value = 112 + 16 = 128.
What are limitations of seasonal variation analysis?
What are limitations of seasonal variation analysis?
Trends may not continue; predictions less reliable long-term.
When do ice cream sales typically peak?
When do ice cream sales typically peak?
Ice cream sales peak in summer months.
Analyze enrollment data: Peak in which term?
Analyze enrollment data: Peak in which term?
Enrollment peaks during autumn terms, drops in summer.