Smoothing a Time Series Using Moving Means (VCE SSCE General Mathematics): Flashcards

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Smoothing a Time Series Using Moving Means
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Purpose of smoothing in time series

Reduce irregular fluctuations to reveal underlying trends

Moving mean smoothing method

Replace data points with average of it & neighbouring points

Points lost with three-moving mean

First and last points

Points lost with five-moving mean

First two and last two points

Effect of more data points in moving mean

Smoother line (reduces impact of unusual values)

When centring is required

When using even number of data points (2, 4, 6, etc.)

What is centring

Taking two-moving mean of already smoothed values

Values needed for 4-moving mean with centring

Five data values

Values needed for 6-moving mean with centring

Seven data values

Trade-off of using more points in moving mean

More data points lost at beginning and end of series

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