Fitting a Trend Line and Forecasting (VCE SSCE General Mathematics): Quizzes

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Fitting a Trend Line and Forecasting
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What does the least squares method minimize when fitting a trend line?

Squared distances between points and line

In time series regression, what is the explanatory variable (EV)?

The time variable (e.g., year, quarter)

How many significant figures should trend line coefficients typically be rounded to?

4-6 significant figures

What does the slope of a trend line represent?

The average rate of change per time period

Why should predictions far beyond the original data be treated with caution?

Trends may not continue indefinitely

What is the first step when working with seasonal time series data?

Deseasonalise the data

In the DSR process for seasonal data, what does the R stand for?

Reseasonalise

How do you reseasonalise a deseasonalised prediction?

Multiply by the appropriate seasonal index

If summer year 1 is quarter 1, which quarter is winter year 4?

Quarter 15

When must you reseasonalise a prediction?

When trend line was fitted to deseasonalised data

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