Estimating Probabilities (VCE SSCE Mathematical Methods): Quizzes

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Estimating probabilities
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What are subjective probabilities based on?

Personal experience or judgment

A coin is flipped 80 times, landing heads 52 times. What is the relative frequency of heads?

5280\frac{52}{80}

What happens to relative frequency as the number of trials increases?

It converges toward true probability

Two experiments estimate a probability: 40 trials vs 120 trials. Which estimate is preferred?

The estimate from 120 trials

Jan records 15 successes in 30 trials, Lee records 25 in 50 trials. Best combined estimate?

4080\frac{40}{80}

What does simulation mean in probability?

To imitate or model an experiment

For area-based probability with equally likely points, what formula is used?

specific areatotal area\frac{\text{specific area}}{\text{total area}}

A circle of area 25 cm² inside a square of area 100 cm². Probability dart lands in circle?

14\frac{1}{4}

How can probability be interpreted in the long run?

Proportion of times event occurs

If you repeat an experiment, results will generally differ. What does this indicate?

Natural variation, not unreliability

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