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10 cards from this deck
Probabilities based on personal experience or judgment
Proportion of trials resulting in a particular event
occurrencestrials\frac{\text{occurrences}}{\text{trials}}trialsoccurrences
More trials → relative frequency closer to true probability
Use the largest available sample size
Combine all data sets to maximise number of trials
Imitate or model a random experiment
specific areatotal area\frac{\text{specific area}}{\text{total area}}total areaspecific area
Proportion of times an event will occur in the long run
May not be reliable or verifiable; vary between people
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